New Delhi (05.09.2024): Forthcoming Haryana Assembly elections are getting interesting after 2024 Lok Sabha elections with the Congress claiming charisma of Prime Minister Narendra Modi petering out with the BJP responding that the Congress is back to square one where lies of the last elections stand exposed. Haryana is a different turf where nationalism and regionalism go side by side. The Congress focuses on Jat voters which constitute 22 to 25 per cent of state’s population but the BJP is trying to tell them that fiefdom of a particular Jat family is harming the rest of the community. There are two more predominantly Jat political outfits in the fray in these elections – Indian National Lok Dal (INLD)-led by Om Prakash Chautala and Jannayak Janta Party (JJP)-led by Dushyant Chautala.

Dushyant was part of the Manohar Lal-led government as Deputy CM and is now in alliance with Azad Samaj Party of Chandrashekar Azad ‘Rawan’ while INLD has joined hands with another SC-centric organisation Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP). So, for Jat votes, there are three claimants led by Jat leaders – the Congress, INLD and JJP. The BJP very cleverly worked among Jats by co-opting Kiran Chaudhary into the party fold and sending her to Rajya Sabha. Her daughter Shruti Chaudhary is fielded as an Assembly candidate. In all likelihood, Jat votes will be divided among all the four groups with the Congress getting the major share.

The Congress has a big SC face and Lok Sabha MP Kumari Selja who expressed her willingness to contest Assembly election to make it clear that the post of Haryana CM is not a done deal for Hooda. The Central leadership of the Congress appears helpless in the matters of Hooda in Haryana but their favourite is Kumari Selja. Meanwhile, Rahul Gandhi has done the trick by unilaterally announcing alliance with AAP in Haryana sending a fear down the spine to the BJP. The Congress had given Kurukshetra Lok Sabha seat to AAP in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections. Now they are demanding 10 seats but the Congress wants to give 3-4 seats at the most.

Former state Congress president Ashok Tanwar is now in the BJP but he lost his Lok Sabha election from Sirsa (SC) to Kumari Selja. Two other SC-centric parties Azad Samaj Party and BSP will try to get votes for their alliance out of around 20 per cent population in the state. Seven per cent Muslim votes will clearly go to the Congress. Despite all these numerical realities, no one can predict which way the election would tilt. The BJP had made inroads in rest of the non-Jat communities with Nawab Singh Saini as CM and Manohar La as former CM. It has a Gujjar minister at the Centre.

Despite having two consecutive terms in the state, the BJP managed to get five LS seats which means lack of perceptible anger against the BJP but there is a boredom. Will this boredom reach such a pass that it is able to change the government in the state. Certain things are improving for the BJP especially the narrative that the BJP will take away reservation and change the constitution. This is rekindling the faith of SC voters in the BJP whatever they had. What goes against the BJP is that there is a long anti-incumbency, Jat voters knowing it well that none from the community would be CM and Prime Minister’s Karishma among voters fading give the Congress an edge but the BJP may surprise with its social engineering.

(By Vinod Kumar Shukla)

(This is second one of the series of four write ups on Assembly elections. Maharashtra will follow the next. Stay tuned)

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