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J&K Assembly Polls: A win for Cong-NC but victory for BJP

By Vinod Kumar Shukla- 03 Sep 2024
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New Delhi (03.09.2024): The BJP dreaming of having a Hindu Chief Minister in Jammu and Kashmir might remain a dream only but it is going to emerge victorious in terms of perception for conducting polls there as promised. The saffron outfit is dealing with conflicting situations where regional electoral compulsions and image of top leaders are pitted against each other. The party is walking on razor’s edge as any miscalculation may turn euphoria into a nightmare.
Post Article 370 and 35 A abrogation, the BJP-led government at the Centre not only remained uncompromising on mainstream political outfits in the newly created Union Territory but ruthless on separatists and terrorists. Most of the separatists including Yasin Malik are in jail for various terror acts and PDP chief and NC leaders were under house arrest during the abrogation process.
With Article 370 and 35 A made ineffective, reservation for SC, ST, Gujjar Bakarwal and Pahadi communities have been provided who were otherwise denied since J&K signed the Instrument of Accession. There are many communities who are benefiting from voting in local elections. The delimitation has added six seats to Jammu division and one seat to Kashmir. Seats in the assembly rose to 114 seats, out of which 24 seats are designated for areas that fall under Pakistan-administered Kashmir. Out of the remaining 90 seats, 43 seats are in Jammu division and 47 seats are in the Kashmir division.
The difference lies here as the seat gap between Jammu and Kashmir is reduced now. The Congress and NC alliance are having a perceptual edge over the BJP and PDP but the BJP is not leaving any stone unturned to emerge as the single largest party. The interesting aspect about the BJP in J&K is that the party was in alliance with NC at the Centre while with PDP in the state.
It would be interesting to watch how many seats the Congress is able to win out of 32 that it got in the alliance while NC would contest on 51 seats. CPI (M) and Panther’s Party got one seat each but the BJP is contesting elections alone which tried hard to penetrate in the valley. BJP leader Ram Madhav being entrusted with the responsibility of election in-charge of the UT is majorly to work in the valley. Any breakthrough there would be a major achievement which was working on J&K when Ghulam Ali Khatana, a Gujjar leader, was nominated to Rajya Sabha.
The Congress-NC alliance is trying to woo voters on restoration of Article 370 and talks with Pakistan besides some other while the BJP is banking on the development, economic activities and non-tolerance policy towards terrorism and bringing Kashmiries to mainstream. The claim is that stone pelting has been brought to zero. Whatever the poll result may be, the BJP is going to be the maximum beneficiary as it will tomtom for conducting elections as promised to give a message across the country and globally for its democratic credentials. Zero tolerance on terrorism is the message for people of the country, J&K and across the border that a bullet awaits every terrorist crossing the border.
(By Vinod Kumar Shukla)
(This is first one of the series of four write ups on Assembly elections. Haryana will follow the next. Stay tuned)

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