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Exit Polls 19 May 2019: Reading between the lines

By IndianMandarins- 20 May 2019


Almost every exit poll has predicted a second term for Prime Minister Narendra Modi. Some of them are giving a clear majority to him while others having some constraints after the seven-phase Lok Sabha elections of 2019 got over. Seven important exit polls predict BJP-led NDA bagging over 300 seats except ABP-AC Neilson that restricts NDA at 277 marks. A party or an alliance needs 272 seats to form the government. On the other hand the Congress is predicted that it not likely to cross 100 mark which had 44 seats in 2014 Lok Sabha. The overall tally for NDA varies from 277 to 365 seats in different exit polls out of 543-member Lok Sabha. However, there are sections that still find the survey figures too unrealistic to believe.

These surveys have underlined certain trends very clearly however the actual result will not be what the polls indicate. Actually, Modi has turned elections as a referendum between him and the rest by offering people of the country between him and none making issues concerning states and regional no takers.

Modi focused about beneficiaries of schemes of his government from six months before Lok Sabha elections were actually announced by putting every minister to reach out to people. Modi repeatedly mentioned pro-incumbency wave across the country for Modi 2.0.

Interestingly this time round the Modi Wave (2.0) seems to have transcended Hindi heartland barring UP but certainly not for the South India. West Bengal, Odisha and North East have emerged as NaMo-Shah risk management model which may compensate the loss of seats in UP.

Modi-Shah combination appears to have crossed the boundaries fixed by their detractors. In 2014 entire BJP fought the elections whereas in 2019 it was Modi-Shah plus RSS cadre.

The exit polls figures might not possibly tally with the results on 23 May. It may be underlined that exit polls failed to predict BJP’s historic numbers (72) in UP in 2014 LS polls. Further, it did fail to predict UP and Bihar Assembly elections.

In case the surveys turned out to be close to final results on 23 May,  Modi and Amit Shah will rule the turf fine five years further changing the political landscape of the country making Rahul Priyanka tough to regain the lost ground.   

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