EXIT POLL

sensex-earned-dividends-post-exit-polls

Sensex earned dividends post Exit Polls

The Exit Polls brought fortune for the capital market today making it the best gains for the Sensex and the Nifty in 10-years.

Sensex, on Monday, opened at 38,819.68, up by 888.91 points while the Nifty opened at 11,691.30, up by 284.15 points

Benchmark indices surged in trade with the Sensex ending the day with mammoth gains of 1422 points, following exit poll predictions of a clear majority for the ruling NDA. The Sensex ended the day at 39,352 points, while the Nifty rallied 421 points to close at 11,828 points.

Indiabulls Housing led gainers from the Nifty with the stock ending 12 per cent higher, while SBI jumped more than 7 per cent.  Shares of Yes Bank, which had hit a 52-week low on Friday, gained substantial ground. The shares ended up 7 per cent at Rs 144. Shares in Anil Dhirubhai Ambani Group (ADAG) companies saw solid buying support with Reliance Capital up near 6 per cent.

Further, Indian Rupee too,m jumped against the US Dollar and rose to a two-week high of 69.36 against the USD as compared to Friday’s close of 70.23. Stock market experts believe that the exit poll results were better than expected which is being reflected in the stock market.

It may well be underlines that in 2004, markets had gained in the pre-poll rush, in hopes of a second term of BJP under Atal Bihari Vajpayee, but the markets crashed soon after the results were out. All it would depend on the final poll results on May 23, 2019.

20 May 2019
exit-polls-19-may-2019:-reading-between-the-lines

Exit Polls 19 May 2019: Reading between the lines

Almost every exit poll has predicted a second term for Prime Minister Narendra Modi. Some of them are giving a clear majority to him while others having some constraints after the seven-phase Lok Sabha elections of 2019 got over. Seven important exit polls predict BJP-led NDA bagging over 300 seats except ABP-AC Neilson that restricts NDA at 277 marks. A party or an alliance needs 272 seats to form the government. On the other hand the Congress is predicted that it not likely to cross 100 mark which had 44 seats in 2014 Lok Sabha. The overall tally for NDA varies from 277 to 365 seats in different exit polls out of 543-member Lok Sabha. However, there are sections that still find the survey figures too unrealistic to believe.


These surveys have underlined certain trends very clearly however the actual result will not be what the polls indicate. Actually, Modi has turned elections as a referendum between him and the rest by offering people of the country between him and none making issues concerning states and regional no takers.


Modi focused about beneficiaries of schemes of his government from six months before Lok Sabha elections were actually announced by putting every minister to reach out to people. Modi repeatedly mentioned pro-incumbency wave across the country for Modi 2.0.


Interestingly this time round the Modi Wave (2.0) seems to have transcended Hindi heartland barring UP but certainly not for the South India. West Bengal, Odisha and North East have emerged as NaMo-Shah risk management model which may compensate the loss of seats in UP.


Modi-Shah combination appears to have crossed the boundaries fixed by their detractors. In 2014 entire BJP fought the elections whereas in 2019 it was Modi-Shah plus RSS cadre.


The exit polls figures might not possibly tally with the results on 23 May. It may be underlined that exit polls failed to predict BJP’s historic numbers (72) in UP in 2014 LS polls. Further, it did fail to predict UP and Bihar Assembly elections.


In case the surveys turned out to be close to final results on 23 May,  Modi and Amit Shah will rule the turf fine five years further changing the political landscape of the country making Rahul Priyanka tough to regain the lost ground.   

20 May 2019
sensex-earned-dividends-post-exit-polls

Sensex earned dividends post Exit Polls

By IndianMandarins 20 May 2019

The Exit Polls brought fortune for the capital market today making it the best gains for the Sensex and the Nifty in 10-years.

Sensex, on Monday, opened at 38,819.68, up by 888.91 points while the Nifty opened at 11,691.30, up by 284.15 points

Benchmark indices surged in trade with the Sensex ending the day with mammoth gains of 1422 points, following exit poll predictions of a clear majority for the ruling NDA. The Sensex ended the day at 39,352 points, while the Nifty rallied 421 points to close at 11,828 points.

Indiabulls Housing led gainers from the Nifty with the stock ending 12 per cent higher, while SBI jumped more than 7 per cent.  Shares of Yes Bank, which had hit a 52-week low on Friday, gained substantial ground. The shares ended up 7 per cent at Rs 144. Shares in Anil Dhirubhai Ambani Group (ADAG) companies saw solid buying support with Reliance Capital up near 6 per cent.

Further, Indian Rupee too,m jumped against the US Dollar and rose to a two-week high of 69.36 against the USD as compared to Friday’s close of 70.23. Stock market experts believe that the exit poll results were better than expected which is being reflected in the stock market.

It may well be underlines that in 2004, markets had gained in the pre-poll rush, in hopes of a second term of BJP under Atal Bihari Vajpayee, but the markets crashed soon after the results were out. All it would depend on the final poll results on May 23, 2019.

exit-polls-19-may-2019:-reading-between-the-lines

Exit Polls 19 May 2019: Reading between the lines

By IndianMandarins 20 May 2019

Almost every exit poll has predicted a second term for Prime Minister Narendra Modi. Some of them are giving a clear majority to him while others having some constraints after the seven-phase Lok Sabha elections of 2019 got over. Seven important exit polls predict BJP-led NDA bagging over 300 seats except ABP-AC Neilson that restricts NDA at 277 marks. A party or an alliance needs 272 seats to form the government. On the other hand the Congress is predicted that it not likely to cross 100 mark which had 44 seats in 2014 Lok Sabha. The overall tally for NDA varies from 277 to 365 seats in different exit polls out of 543-member Lok Sabha. However, there are sections that still find the survey figures too unrealistic to believe.


These surveys have underlined certain trends very clearly however the actual result will not be what the polls indicate. Actually, Modi has turned elections as a referendum between him and the rest by offering people of the country between him and none making issues concerning states and regional no takers.


Modi focused about beneficiaries of schemes of his government from six months before Lok Sabha elections were actually announced by putting every minister to reach out to people. Modi repeatedly mentioned pro-incumbency wave across the country for Modi 2.0.


Interestingly this time round the Modi Wave (2.0) seems to have transcended Hindi heartland barring UP but certainly not for the South India. West Bengal, Odisha and North East have emerged as NaMo-Shah risk management model which may compensate the loss of seats in UP.


Modi-Shah combination appears to have crossed the boundaries fixed by their detractors. In 2014 entire BJP fought the elections whereas in 2019 it was Modi-Shah plus RSS cadre.


The exit polls figures might not possibly tally with the results on 23 May. It may be underlined that exit polls failed to predict BJP’s historic numbers (72) in UP in 2014 LS polls. Further, it did fail to predict UP and Bihar Assembly elections.


In case the surveys turned out to be close to final results on 23 May,  Modi and Amit Shah will rule the turf fine five years further changing the political landscape of the country making Rahul Priyanka tough to regain the lost ground.   

how-far-can-exit-polls-prove-to-be-true-this-time?

How far can exit polls prove to be true this time?

By IndianMandarins 20 May 2019

The wide and definite edge given in all the exit polls to the BJP and NDA can only be because of a single factor. And it can be nothing else but the possibility that the charisma often associated with Prime Minister Narendra Modi may have worked well. Yet, this has been confined to the North or its vast and significant parts alone. In the South with the sole exception of Karnataka this has failed for the BJP and its allies like AIADMK as spectacularly as it is projected to have succeeded in the Northern States, or the Hindi belt, by the exit polls.

 

The two States where various exit polls findings differ and, thus, face a test of sorts are Uttar Pradesh and West Bengal. Most of the exit polls show that in both the State BJP is going to do better than what was expected. Yet, because of the alliance of Samajwadi Party and Bahujan Samaj Party in Uttar Pradesh BJP faces a formidable challenge and, thus, ABP News’ exit polls has given over 50 seats to the alliance and the BJP only 22 out of a total of 80 seats whereas other sample polls keep BJP far ahead of its rivals in UP. So in any case NDA is not going to get as many as 73 seats which was the case in 2014 Lok Sabha polls.

 

Unlike UP where electioneering has generally been peaceful West Bengal came to a virtual edge through the polls because of intermittent violent incidents through a long and bitter campaign. And amid this, pollsters are giving upto one-third or 14 seats out of a total of 42 constituencies in the State. If this turns out to be so, it would indeed belie the popularity of Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee who vehemently fought against the new saffron entrants in the contest through most of the State’s constituencies.

 

The other States where exit polls this time appear to be out of sync from the results of last Assembly polls held only five months ago are Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan. All the three provinces were won by Congress only in December last year. Yet, one of the exit polls has given Congress only one Lok Sabha seat out of 29. Asked about this a long time scribe based in Bhopal said this could not be so and, thus, it may be guided by the BJP’s sway over social media besides the high decibel BJP campaign. Congress voters have mostly been silent unlike highly vocal BJP advocates and sympathisers, he points out.

 

Like Madhya Pradesh BJP is also ahead with its ally Shiv Sena as per the exit polls in Maharashtra against Congress-NCP alliance. This is also thought to be highly debatable by old time watchers of the State. As per them Congress and NCP may do better than what has been made out to be the case, courtesy exit polls.

 

Thus, besides parties, or contestants, pollsters and psephologists too face a test this time as actual results are awaited and which will be out only on May 23 when votes are counted. This is more so since as late as in December pollsters were quite off the mark in case of Chhattisgarh Assembly polls where actual results belied the projections made by poll surveyors.

free stat counter