New Delhi (03.11.2022): As a humane gesture, which cease to exist in modern-day politics, Rahul Gandhi has decided not to make Morbi tragedy a political issue contrary to the new entrant in the political arena Aam Aadmi Party which is not leaving any stone unturned to target the ruling party in the state on the same issue. Still! Will the Congress with its so-called new kind of politics and Aam Aadmi Party with every day a new kind of politics be able to dislodge 27-year-long spell of the Bharatiya Janta Party or the saffron outfit will romp home with unprecedented electoral success in the home state of Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Home Minister Amit Shah -- the later known for his electoral jugglery. Elections in India have certain fixed issues while certain issues pop up during a particular election. Let’s discuss them one by one: Why did the KHAM factor never work again? Gujarat doesn’t have a template for voting on caste lines moreover the business interest of every community forces them to go for the BJP. Out of Kshatriya, Harijan, Aadivasi and Muslim, the BJP worked on Dalits and Aadivasies. In this elections, Muslims are not only switching side to AAP but the Pasmanda Muslim slogan of the BJP too might have its impact. Kashtriya voters voted for Shankarsinh Vaghela and in this election, no one can say that the entire group is voting for anyone which gives an advantage to BJP. The Congress let them go out of its kitty one by one. The eternal Patidar factor: With over 14 percent Patidar population in both Leuva and Kadva, the community is impossible to ignore for its influence and resources. During 2017 elections, the movement led by Hardik Patel has considerably damaged the BJP bringing its tally as low as 99 in a 182-member Assembly where any party needed a minimum 92. In 2012, the political outfit of Kesubhai Patel made some dent. Hardik is now in the BJP and there is no resentment except some anti-Hindu jibes made by chief of Gujarat AAP Gopal Italia who is from the Patidar community. But disrespecting Hindu faith will not work as a political tool in Gujarat. So the attempt is being made to float ideas like printing Lord Ganesh and Goddess on Currency notes. Muslims in the absence of Ahmed Patel: The era of Ahmed Patel in Gujarat is over and no one was groomed or rather no one was allowed to be groomed to take up leadership. So there is a crisis of leadership in Congress. So Muslims are straightaway switching to AAP and a section of anti-incumbency voters is also shifting to AAP. In a way, a big chunk of votes is vertically divided which was solely the Congress pie. Why suddenly Maniben Patel? Social Media is filled up with reports about the woes of Maniben Patel after the Death of her father Sardar Vallabhbhai Patel in 1950. Patel was co-opted by the BJP long back now the entire family is allegedly being usurped by the party. Just before elections, discussing the penury condition of Maniben Patel will evoke Gujarati sentiment. Investment is reaching Gujarat: Investment in Gujarat is invited on the Vibrant Gujarat scheme but now recent investment plans like the prestigious Vedanta Foxconn Microchip Factor Project and Tata, Airbus plan to manufacture high-end aircraft for the Indian defence establishment. But there are many other investment projects driving investment towards Gujarat so much so that even BJP-ruled states are uncomfortable with it. The BJP will certainly tom-tom its achievement for Gujarat. Missing Congress in Gujarat: Whatever the Congress says to defend its failure to make its campaign better and call it its strategy, it appears that they have given a walk over to the BJP long back to form the government now they are offering the role of Opposition to the AAP on platters. Neither AAP is giving up in Gujarat nor is it accepting anything less than forming the government in the state. What is the Congress’ claim, actually there is no one to make any claim in Gujarat. Despite a week having passed, the new president Mallikarjuna Kharge has not yet planned to visit Gujarat. He must be shying away and thinking that losing the first election as Party chief will be a bad omen. So let’s make an alibi that the Congress is busy with Bharat Jodo Yatra. Not Gandhies are always to be blamed, the entire Congress appears to have become parasites and wants to piggyback Gandhies for electoral success. The Modi-Shah factor: A common Gujarati has a different thought process about Modi-Shah. They will not humiliate and disappoint Modi-Shah duo by voting them out of power. Moreover, if Shah can manage one of the most difficult caste politics of states like Uttar Pradesh and Bihar, managing the social equations of their own state is rather easier. So they are an election factor while no one either Kejriwal or Rahul, is an election factor in Gujarat so far. The Hindutva factor: Gujarati are unequivocally uncompromising about their faith which is now underlined as Hindutva. There are many decisions that are pumping Hindutva feeling in the state. This is forcing Kejriwal to claim to be no less Hindu by claiming to be born on Janmastami, the day Lord Krishna was born. He also proposed to print pictures of Lord Ganesh and Goddess Lakshmi on currency notes. Rahul Gandhi is busy with his Bharat Jodo Yatra and the Congress has no strategy for Gujarat to counter Hindutva. Morbi or no Morbi, challenging the ruling dispensation in Gujarat looks difficult at the moment but politics is also known for its strange outcomes. At least opposition parties can hope for this! (By Vinod Kumar Shukla)
Decoding Gujarat Assembly elections!
By Vinod Kumar Shukla - 2022-11-03 22:00:00
New Delhi (03.11.2022): As a humane gesture, which cease to exist in modern-day politics, Rahul Gandhi has decided not to make Morbi tragedy a political issue contrary to the new entrant in the political arena Aam Aadmi Party which is not leaving any stone unturned to target the ruling party in the state on the same issue. Still! Will the Congress with its so-called new kind of politics and Aam Aadmi Party with every day a new kind of politics be able to dislodge 27-year-long spell of the Bharatiya Janta Party or the saffron outfit will romp home with unprecedented electoral success in the home state of Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Home Minister Amit Shah -- the later known for his electoral jugglery.
Elections in India have certain fixed issues while certain issues pop up during a particular election. Let’s discuss them one by one:
Why did the KHAM factor never work again?
Gujarat doesn’t have a template for voting on caste lines moreover the business interest of every community forces them to go for the BJP. Out of Kshatriya, Harijan, Aadivasi and Muslim, the BJP worked on Dalits and Aadivasies. In this elections, Muslims are not only switching side to AAP but the Pasmanda Muslim slogan of the BJP too might have its impact. Kashtriya voters voted for Shankarsinh Vaghela and in this election, no one can say that the entire group is voting for anyone which gives an advantage to BJP. The Congress let them go out of its kitty one by one.
The eternal Patidar factor:
With over 14 percent Patidar population in both Leuva and Kadva, the community is impossible to ignore for its influence and resources. During 2017 elections, the movement led by Hardik Patel has considerably damaged the BJP bringing its tally as low as 99 in a 182-member Assembly where any party needed a minimum 92. In 2012, the political outfit of Kesubhai Patel made some dent. Hardik is now in the BJP and there is no resentment except some anti-Hindu jibes made by chief of Gujarat AAP Gopal Italia who is from the Patidar community. But disrespecting Hindu faith will not work as a political tool in Gujarat. So the attempt is being made to float ideas like printing Lord Ganesh and Goddess on Currency notes.
Muslims in the absence of Ahmed Patel:
The era of Ahmed Patel in Gujarat is over and no one was groomed or rather no one was allowed to be groomed to take up leadership. So there is a crisis of leadership in Congress. So Muslims are straightaway switching to AAP and a section of anti-incumbency voters is also shifting to AAP. In a way, a big chunk of votes is vertically divided which was solely the Congress pie.
Why suddenly Maniben Patel?
Social Media is filled up with reports about the woes of Maniben Patel after the Death of her father Sardar Vallabhbhai Patel in 1950. Patel was co-opted by the BJP long back now the entire family is allegedly being usurped by the party. Just before elections, discussing the penury condition of Maniben Patel will evoke Gujarati sentiment.
Investment is reaching Gujarat:
Investment in Gujarat is invited on the Vibrant Gujarat scheme but now recent investment plans like the prestigious Vedanta Foxconn Microchip Factor Project and Tata, Airbus plan to manufacture high-end aircraft for the Indian defence establishment. But there are many other investment projects driving investment towards Gujarat so much so that even BJP-ruled states are uncomfortable with it. The BJP will certainly tom-tom its achievement for Gujarat.
Missing Congress in Gujarat:
Whatever the Congress says to defend its failure to make its campaign better and call it its strategy, it appears that they have given a walk over to the BJP long back to form the government now they are offering the role of Opposition to the AAP on platters. Neither AAP is giving up in Gujarat nor is it accepting anything less than forming the government in the state. What is the Congress’ claim, actually there is no one to make any claim in Gujarat. Despite a week having passed, the new president Mallikarjuna Kharge has not yet planned to visit Gujarat. He must be shying away and thinking that losing the first election as Party chief will be a bad omen. So let’s make an alibi that the Congress is busy with Bharat Jodo Yatra. Not Gandhies are always to be blamed, the entire Congress appears to have become parasites and wants to piggyback Gandhies for electoral success.
The Modi-Shah factor:
A common Gujarati has a different thought process about Modi-Shah. They will not humiliate and disappoint Modi-Shah duo by voting them out of power. Moreover, if Shah can manage one of the most difficult caste politics of states like Uttar Pradesh and Bihar, managing the social equations of their own state is rather easier. So they are an election factor while no one either Kejriwal or Rahul, is an election factor in Gujarat so far.
The Hindutva factor:
Gujarati are unequivocally uncompromising about their faith which is now underlined as Hindutva. There are many decisions that are pumping Hindutva feeling in the state. This is forcing Kejriwal to claim to be no less Hindu by claiming to be born on Janmastami, the day Lord Krishna was born. He also proposed to print pictures of Lord Ganesh and Goddess Lakshmi on currency notes. Rahul Gandhi is busy with his Bharat Jodo Yatra and the Congress has no strategy for Gujarat to counter Hindutva.
Morbi or no Morbi, challenging the ruling dispensation in Gujarat looks difficult at the moment but politics is also known for its strange outcomes. At least opposition parties can hope for this!
(By Vinod Kumar Shukla)
