SAD’s utility factor for BJP in Delhi?

By IndianMandarins 18 hours ago

The way BJP has snapped its ties with SAD in Delhi and has chosen JD(U) and LJP instead makes two things very clear. First, utility of an alliance partner is more important than emotional quotient and second they will not buckle under the pressure of anyone on CAA. And this is reflected from the fact when the BJP parted ways from Shiv Sena in Maharashtra and SAD in Delhi. They had already dumped TDP before 2019 Lok Sabha elections.

Though the SAD and BJP are claiming that alliance was broken on the issue of CAA but the reality looks different. BJP is focusing more on Poorvanchali vote bank in Delhi. Joining JDU and LJP in Delhi will have its spillover effect in Bihar and West Bengal as well. The game plan of the BJP is apparently to use services of Nitish Kumar, Ram Vilas Paswan and Chirag Paswan to win over not so enthusiastic 45 per cent Poorvanchali voters who had voted Kejriwal last time.

Rashtriya Sikh Sangat is also working for the BJP to neutralize the impact of SAD in Delhi which has over 10 lakh Sikh votes. So the BJP snapping ties with SAD is a well thought out decision.

Modi may pick Marandi for ministerial berth; JVM’s merger into BJP likely

By IndianMandarins 11 Jan 2020

With a severe drubbing in Jharkhand Assembly elections, the BJP is now looking at ways and means to strengthen the party in the state. One such attempt may reflect in the ‘Ghar Wapsi’ of former Jharkhand CM Babu Lal Marandi.

Reportedly, Marandi may join the BJP anytime after Makar Sankranti that is on January 15, 2020. Marandi is still one of the most popular and strong BJP leader in the state but BJP leader Arjun Munda played key role in ensuring Marandi’s with the help of BJP’s central leadership like Rajnath Singh, M Venkaiyah Naidu and Advani. Later Marandi was forced to quit the BJP paving way for Arjun Munda as CM. Over a period of time BJP realised that it was a loss for Marandi and BJP both. In Jharkhand Assembly elections Marandi led JVM too has fared badly in the election and his resources have also tried up. It is believed that Marandi ‘Ghar Wapsi’ may kick start his revival in politics.

The BJP also wants to win over tribals in the state and a strong tribal leader like Marandi joining the BJP again will definitely benificial for both.

RSS’ next target?

By IndianMandarins 05 Jan 2020

RSS wants to do away with the word ‘secular’ from the preamble of the Indian constitution. Some people feel that this is an attempt to make India a Hindu nation but the RSS has its own logic behind this argument. Still, a section feels that CAA, triple talaq, Ram Temple, NRC, NPR, the promise of the Uniform Civil Code and proposed population control bill is simply furthering the agenda of the RSS by the Modi government.

RSS leader J Nandkumar feels that secularism is a western concept that came into existence to fight papal dominance in governance and to get states rid of the shackles of the church that the situation does not exist in India.

The matter of world secular was discussed in the Constituent Assembly debate but was opposed by Bhim Rao Ambedkar and Krishna Swami Aiyar and it was not included in the constitution. “But Constitution was bulldozed by Indira Gandhi in 1976 to include world secular. It was done to harm Hindutva,” he added.

Resentment brewing in Shiv Sena after cabinet expansion

By IndianMandarins 31 Dec 2019

Will the BJP take any lesson from Jharkhand debacle in Uttarakhand?

By IndianMandarins 30 Dec 2019

The BJP has lost Jharkhand elections just because of unpopularity of its CM Raghubar Das in the states and infighting between the two leaders of the party. Now daggers are drawn in another BJP-ruled state Uttarakhand where chief minister and a very prominent leader are at loggerheads. The said leader has been nurturing the dream of becoming either chief minister or minister in the Modi government. State organisation is also in sambles due to infighting.

Now some recent developments have made this infighting wide open and none of them is missing a chance to corner each other. Both of them claim their proximity with the central leadership but this infighting and personal ambition is harming the party in the state for sure. BJP leadership is watching these developments very closely.

Some changes are possible not only in the central government but also in the organisation but one thing is also sure that Modi-Shah don’t work under pressure of anyone. If any BJP leader is of the view that they will come under pressure from anyone and anything, they are mistaken. Uttarakhand does not stand any chance in the Union council of minister as the state has its quota so some promotion might happen.

The other aspect of these developments are that the other group is more aggressive and the prevailing situation has allowed them a better opportunity to further their cause. Will the BJP learn a lesson from Jharkhand is a big question?

Jharkhand election results: Takeaways and Indian politics ahead

By IndianMandarins 24 Dec 2019

At the very outset of election campaigns in Jharkhand, it was assumed that BJP would not lose more than 6-7 seats and somehow would be able to manage to form the government through tactical alliances with AJSU and independents.

Political strategists Ahmed Patel, R P N Singh, Hemant Soren get all reasons to pat their back for getting over 45 seats for alliance.

Finally BJP’s dreams have shattered triggering several curious questions and takeaways from the results of Jharkhand elections as follows:-

1. Jharkhand CM Raghubar Das lost his own seat which is a moral defeat as well. But at the same time it’s a big setback for BJP's central leadership.
2. If Maharashtra elections bolstered the confidence of Congress strategists to make compromises for the sake of keeping BJP away from power then Jharkhand elections consolidated it.
3. What makes more difficult to define the BJP’s defeat is that it lost its ground in a state like Jharkhand where PM Modi’s popularity graph ahead of 2019 Lok Sabha polls was highest at 75%. At the same time political analysts say that Modi's charisma would remain intact until the emergence of a leader to draw parallel. 
4. BJP-RSS’ own Saryu Rai emerged as ‘the giant killer’ spoiling BJP’s prospects in the state. Party would have to reconsider its strategy to accommodate senior leaders of the party.
5. Surprisingly Jharkhand elections took place in the backdrop of abrogation of Article 370, Ayodhya Verdict and CAA but the they failed to work for the BJP. CAA is being seen as people’s referendum in terms of political and electoral benefits.
6. Further Jharkhand always had the privilege of having several official visits of PM Modi be it International Yoga Day or inaugural programs in Godda etc still it rejected the state leadership of BJP.
7. Jharkhand results somewhere down the line indicate that law of diminishing effect has started catching up with the BJP.
8. Probably it indicates that the process for revival of Congress and larger alliance has started which may continue. It also makes it obvious that Congress need to rework on missing-links of its functioning as it do not get micro-level feedback from the field else it could not have fielded Gaurav Ballabh, a bright young leader with bleak electoral prospects for now, against Saryu Rai in Jamshedpur seat
9. AAP and Congress in Delhi have now got its confidence boosted with the BJP humiliated in Jharkhand and it's allies  may not take any chance to corner BJP in 2020 elections. Delhi elections may set a new course.
10. Nitish, Naveen, Mamta, Jagan and others would start asserting and negotiating more and more with the Centre.
11. Among Modi’s cherry-picked unknown faces in 2014 Fadanvis faded away, Khattar somehow survived and Raghubar finished finally; though he would lead the opposition in the state.
12. Post Jharkhand elections the country may see pace in the shift of tone and tenor of television news channels and newspapers; an inevitable process which appears to have already started post Maharashtra elections. 

Jharkhand: Results critical for national politics and Delhi elections ahead

By IndianMandarins 23 Dec 2019

Amid trending Assembly Elections results Jharkhand may make or break the confidence of larger alliance against BJP's 'Ashwamedh'. Maharashtra proved to be a booster for opposition parties. Karnataka bypolls results disappointed the opposition for a while. But Jharkhand elections, which took place in the midst of CAA, may make or break the confidence of BJP and larger alliance or vice-versa.    

Whatever be the results it will be considered as people's' referendum on the political and electoral benefits of Citizenship Amendment Act (CAA). The results may also set the note for Delhi Assembly elections. 

Is the BJP feeling heat to keep its flock together in Maharashtra?

By IndianMandarins 03 Dec 2019

A wishful thinking or something more that the Maharashtra government will crumble out of its inherent contradictions. This may be a challenge for the Shiv Sena led government in Maharashtra but the bigger challenge seems to be emerging for the Bharatiya Janata Party to keep its flock together with the new ruthless friend-turned foe Shiv Sena claiming with élan that number of their tribe may go up to 185 that is 16 more to the present number.

Former minister in Devendra Fadnavis government Pankaja Munde appears to be in a rebellious mood. Proximity of two late BJP stalwarts – Pramod Mahajan and Gopi Nath Munde – with the Thackrey family is known to everyone. The way Pankaja Munde was praising Maharashtra chief minister Udhdhav Thackrey, it has definitely set the alarm bell ringing for the BJP. The government is very well saddled so even a bunch of five or ten MLAs will be welcomed.

Though Pankaja’s own sister Dr Pritam Munde is MP from Beed and her cousin Poonam Mahajan is MP from Mumbai North-Central but none of them have been given due recognition in the present dispensation giving them heart burn. So there is resentment in the extended family as such.

Another axis of resentment in Maharashtra is Nitin Gadkari whose supporters have all been denied Assembly tickets. So there is palpable anger among them party and some of them are looking for the right opportunity to hit back hard. But if the Munde-Mahajan sisters decide to go against the BJP and other leaders join hands, things will really be difficult for the BJP.

The Shiv Sena would definitely like to capitalize on the situation as this will help the party to expand its base for its future prospects. Twelve sitting MLAs were denied tickets by the BJP in Maharashtra during last Assembly elections. BJP's state unit chief Chandrakant Patil replaced Medha Vishram Kulkarni from Kothrud in Pune. Senior party leader Eknath Khadse and Vinod Tawde were denied tickets. So lots of firecrackers await in the Maharashtra politics from both sides in the days to come.