REGIONAL POLITICS

jharkhand-election-results:-takeaways-and-indian-politics-ahead

Jharkhand election results: Takeaways and Indian politics ahead

At the very outset of election campaigns in Jharkhand, it was assumed that BJP would not lose more than 6-7 seats and somehow would be able to manage to form the government through tactical alliances with AJSU and independents.

Political strategists Ahmed Patel, R P N Singh, Hemant Soren get all reasons to pat their back for getting over 45 seats for alliance.

Finally BJP’s dreams have shattered triggering several curious questions and takeaways from the results of Jharkhand elections as follows:-

  1. Jharkhand CM Raghubar Das lost his own seat which is a moral defeat as well. But at the same time it’s a big setback for BJP's central leadership.
  2. If Maharashtra elections bolstered the confidence of Congress strategists to make compromises for the sake of keeping BJP away from power then Jharkhand elections consolidated it.
  3. What makes more difficult to define the BJP’s defeat is that it lost its ground in a state like Jharkhand where PM Modi’s popularity graph ahead of 2019 Lok Sabha polls was highest at 75%. At the same time political analysts say that Modi's charisma would remain intact until the emergence of a leader to draw parallel. 
  4. BJP-RSS’ own Saryu Rai emerged as ‘the giant killer’ spoiling BJP’s prospects in the state. Party would have to reconsider its strategy to accommodate senior leaders of the party.
  5. Surprisingly Jharkhand elections took place in the backdrop of abrogation of Article 370, Ayodhya Verdict and CAA but the they failed to work for the BJP. CAA is being seen as people’s referendum in terms of political and electoral benefits.
  6. Further Jharkhand always had the privilege of having several official visits of PM Modi be it International Yoga Day or inaugural programs in Godda etc still it rejected the state leadership of BJP.
  7. Jharkhand results somewhere down the line indicate that law of diminishing effect has started catching up with the BJP.
  8. Probably it indicates that the process for revival of Congress and larger alliance has started which may continue. It also makes it obvious that Congress need to rework on missing-links of its functioning as it do not get micro-level feedback from the field else it could not have fielded Gaurav Ballabh, a bright young leader with bleak electoral prospects for now, against Saryu Rai in Jamshedpur seat
  9. AAP and Congress in Delhi have now got its confidence boosted with the BJP humiliated in Jharkhand and it's allies  may not take any chance to corner BJP in 2020 elections. Delhi elections may set a new course.
  10. Nitish, Naveen, Mamta, Jagan and others would start asserting and negotiating more and more with the Centre.
  11. Among Modi’s cherry-picked unknown faces in 2014 Fadanvis faded away, Khattar somehow survived and Raghubar finished finally; though he would lead the opposition in the state.
  12. Post Jharkhand elections the country may see pace in the shift of tone and tenor of television news channels and newspapers; an inevitable process which appears to have already started post Maharashtra elections. 
(By Rakesh Ranjan)

24 Dec 2019
marandi-may-emerge-either-as-a-king-or-the-king-maker-in-jharkhand

Marandi may emerge either as a King or the King maker in Jharkhand

Amid the exit polls survey reports indicating none getting full-majority JVM leader Babu Lal Marandi may emerge either as the King or the King-maker. The fate may put him in a situation where he may outsmart the BJP or Congress-JMM-RJD coalition. There are few who believe that BJP had managed in JVM well before elections which might help the limping BJP getting some lost foothold. Marandi does not have any problem to join the BJP as he had some issues with the then BJP president who replaced him for Arjun Munda for no reason. He has a better rapport with the PM.

At the very outset of elections BJP workers were not ready to give the party 16-20 seats but now they are of the view that the party is going to get comfortably 25 seats and they won’t be surprised if the number is something between 30 and 33.

It may be underlined that the JVM has been facing serious resource crunch but fielded its candidates on all 81 Assembly seats apparently with the tacit help from the BJP and is expected to get around 5-6 seats. Until recently, over dependence of JVM on Muslim vote was eroding its base, so the new alignment has put things in perspective. In certain tribal dominated region JVM has wider acceptability and it would have made dent to JMM.

If some insiders are to be believed the BJP has already started touching upon strong independent candidates looking at the prospects getting better and better by the day. It might have further improved with PM pitching strongly for CAA. The people’s verdict will be out on Monday but till then it appears that Marandi would command the marginal number that may make or marr the prospects for new government in Jharkhand.  

(By Rakesh Ranjan)

21 Dec 2019
jharkhand-election-results:-takeaways-and-indian-politics-ahead

Jharkhand election results: Takeaways and Indian politics ahead

By IndianMandarins 24 Dec 2019

At the very outset of election campaigns in Jharkhand, it was assumed that BJP would not lose more than 6-7 seats and somehow would be able to manage to form the government through tactical alliances with AJSU and independents.

Political strategists Ahmed Patel, R P N Singh, Hemant Soren get all reasons to pat their back for getting over 45 seats for alliance.

Finally BJP’s dreams have shattered triggering several curious questions and takeaways from the results of Jharkhand elections as follows:-

  1. Jharkhand CM Raghubar Das lost his own seat which is a moral defeat as well. But at the same time it’s a big setback for BJP's central leadership.
  2. If Maharashtra elections bolstered the confidence of Congress strategists to make compromises for the sake of keeping BJP away from power then Jharkhand elections consolidated it.
  3. What makes more difficult to define the BJP’s defeat is that it lost its ground in a state like Jharkhand where PM Modi’s popularity graph ahead of 2019 Lok Sabha polls was highest at 75%. At the same time political analysts say that Modi's charisma would remain intact until the emergence of a leader to draw parallel. 
  4. BJP-RSS’ own Saryu Rai emerged as ‘the giant killer’ spoiling BJP’s prospects in the state. Party would have to reconsider its strategy to accommodate senior leaders of the party.
  5. Surprisingly Jharkhand elections took place in the backdrop of abrogation of Article 370, Ayodhya Verdict and CAA but the they failed to work for the BJP. CAA is being seen as people’s referendum in terms of political and electoral benefits.
  6. Further Jharkhand always had the privilege of having several official visits of PM Modi be it International Yoga Day or inaugural programs in Godda etc still it rejected the state leadership of BJP.
  7. Jharkhand results somewhere down the line indicate that law of diminishing effect has started catching up with the BJP.
  8. Probably it indicates that the process for revival of Congress and larger alliance has started which may continue. It also makes it obvious that Congress need to rework on missing-links of its functioning as it do not get micro-level feedback from the field else it could not have fielded Gaurav Ballabh, a bright young leader with bleak electoral prospects for now, against Saryu Rai in Jamshedpur seat
  9. AAP and Congress in Delhi have now got its confidence boosted with the BJP humiliated in Jharkhand and it's allies  may not take any chance to corner BJP in 2020 elections. Delhi elections may set a new course.
  10. Nitish, Naveen, Mamta, Jagan and others would start asserting and negotiating more and more with the Centre.
  11. Among Modi’s cherry-picked unknown faces in 2014 Fadanvis faded away, Khattar somehow survived and Raghubar finished finally; though he would lead the opposition in the state.
  12. Post Jharkhand elections the country may see pace in the shift of tone and tenor of television news channels and newspapers; an inevitable process which appears to have already started post Maharashtra elections. 
(By Rakesh Ranjan)

marandi-may-emerge-either-as-a-king-or-the-king-maker-in-jharkhand

Marandi may emerge either as a King or the King maker in Jharkhand

By IndianMandarins 21 Dec 2019

Amid the exit polls survey reports indicating none getting full-majority JVM leader Babu Lal Marandi may emerge either as the King or the King-maker. The fate may put him in a situation where he may outsmart the BJP or Congress-JMM-RJD coalition. There are few who believe that BJP had managed in JVM well before elections which might help the limping BJP getting some lost foothold. Marandi does not have any problem to join the BJP as he had some issues with the then BJP president who replaced him for Arjun Munda for no reason. He has a better rapport with the PM.

At the very outset of elections BJP workers were not ready to give the party 16-20 seats but now they are of the view that the party is going to get comfortably 25 seats and they won’t be surprised if the number is something between 30 and 33.

It may be underlined that the JVM has been facing serious resource crunch but fielded its candidates on all 81 Assembly seats apparently with the tacit help from the BJP and is expected to get around 5-6 seats. Until recently, over dependence of JVM on Muslim vote was eroding its base, so the new alignment has put things in perspective. In certain tribal dominated region JVM has wider acceptability and it would have made dent to JMM.

If some insiders are to be believed the BJP has already started touching upon strong independent candidates looking at the prospects getting better and better by the day. It might have further improved with PM pitching strongly for CAA. The people’s verdict will be out on Monday but till then it appears that Marandi would command the marginal number that may make or marr the prospects for new government in Jharkhand.  

(By Rakesh Ranjan)

is-the-bjp-feeling-heat-to-keep-its-flock-together-in-maharashtra-

Is the BJP feeling heat to keep its flock together in Maharashtra?

By IndianMandarins 03 Dec 2019

A wishful thinking or something more that the Maharashtra government will crumble out of its inherent contradictions. This may be a challenge for the Shiv Sena led government in Maharashtra but the bigger challenge seems to be emerging for the Bharatiya Janata Party to keep its flock together with the new ruthless friend-turned foe Shiv Sena claiming with élan that number of their tribe may go up to 185 that is 16 more to the present number.

Former minister in Devendra Fadnavis government Pankaja Munde appears to be in a rebellious mood. Proximity of two late BJP stalwarts – Pramod Mahajan and Gopi Nath Munde – with the Thackrey family is known to everyone. The way Pankaja Munde was praising Maharashtra chief minister Udhdhav Thackrey, it has definitely set the alarm bell ringing for the BJP. The government is very well saddled so even a bunch of five or ten MLAs will be welcomed.

Though Pankaja’s own sister Dr Pritam Munde is MP from Beed and her cousin Poonam Mahajan is MP from Mumbai North-Central but none of them have been given due recognition in the present dispensation giving them heart burn. So there is resentment in the extended family as such.

Another axis of resentment in Maharashtra is Nitin Gadkari whose supporters have all been denied Assembly tickets. So there is palpable anger among them party and some of them are looking for the right opportunity to hit back hard. But if the Munde-Mahajan sisters decide to go against the BJP and other leaders join hands, things will really be difficult for the BJP.

The Shiv Sena would definitely like to capitalize on the situation as this will help the party to expand its base for its future prospects. Twelve sitting MLAs were denied tickets by the BJP in Maharashtra during last Assembly elections. BJP's state unit chief Chandrakant Patil replaced Medha Vishram Kulkarni from Kothrud in Pune. Senior party leader Eknath Khadse and Vinod Tawde were denied tickets. So lots of firecrackers await in the Maharashtra politics from both sides in the days to come.

maharashtra-politics:-did-a-lawyer-break-the-ice-

Maharashtra politics: Did a lawyer break the ice?

By IndianMandarins 23 Nov 2019

Devendra Fadnavis is the new chief minister of Maharashtra that too for second time. But people who had missed the last bus – the mainstream media – that who would form the government are looking for the person who was instrumental in breaking the ice between the two political parties – the BJP and the NCP. The identity of the person who played a role as an important link to make Maharashtra government to become a reality is a lawyer by profession. Sooner or later his identity will be revealed but for now it is moment to relish for NCP. 

is-the-opposition-voice-gaining-reverberation-against-the-bjp-

Is the opposition voice gaining reverberation against the BJP?

By IndianMandarins 22 Nov 2019

With the Shiv Sena joining hands with the Congress and the Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) to form the government in Maharashtra is something very unusual but there is a subtle massage behind this unity that is unity against the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). Similar unity is visible in Jharkhand as well where the BJP is left alone and every other party has joined hands directly or indirectly to take on the BJP. If they are not part of the alliance there is some kind of understanding to defeat the saffron outfit.

This anti-BJP sentiment seems to be gradually seeping into the psyche of people across the country. However it is too early to say that it will start showing its results but it has definitely started gaining grounds at various levels. The BJP is out of power in Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh, Punjab and now will be out of power in Maharashtra. Delhi and Jharkhand are really a tough call for the party.

The same unity is visible in Delhi where every non-BJP political party is joining hands together as they are fearful of their very survival and on many ideological issues. So much so that down south where actor Rajnikanth who was supposed to be a BJP man in southern parts of the country announced to join the most bitter critique of the BJP Kamal Hasan if need be.

So the BJP seems to be on the same situation from where it made its path to power corridor of Raisina Hills in New Delhi in 2014 when anti-Congress feeling was its Nadir with perception regarding corruption reaching its filthy level so everyone trying to get rid of the Congress and its akin. The Janata Dal (United) is not happy with the BJP and is apprehensive of being dumped in Bihar and Lok Janshakti Party supporting opposition on WhatsApp snooping case for BJP’s dominance over its NDA allies beyond a limit is a tale to tell for all.

It is not only the opposition but also workers of the BJP are feeling heat of reckless behavior of the party leadership even at state level. An old NDA ally Telugu Desam Party was the first to revolt against the BJP and was already out  of the NDA. The Assam ally Asom Gan Parishad of the BJP is against the Citizenship Bill but the BJP is going ahead with it.

Leadership of both of its former allies – the National Conference and Peoples’ Democratic Party – are in jail and all party meeting before the winter session of Parliament talked about Farooq Abdullah being allowed to attend Parliament. There are many such issues that are working as catalysts for opposition leaders to join hands but unfortunately but no one is there to become the voice of united opposition but this is not a pipe dream that won’t ever be realized. This is where the BJP has edge over rest of the political parties.

(By Rakesh Ranjan and Vinod Kumar Shukla)

maharashtra-a-tough-call-indeed-for-10-janpath

Maharashtra a tough call indeed for 10 Janpath

By IndianMandarins 19 Nov 2019

As talks on government formation in Maharashtra with Shiv Sena joining hands with the NCP still rife, the Congress finds itself in a big dilemma. Of late, frequent meetings of Maharashtra ‘Kshatrap’ Sharad Pawar with interim president of Congress Sonia Gandhi have been indicative of a possible coalition government of Shiv Sena, NCP and the Congress.

If it is realised, it would be an ideological summersault of the Congress by joining a saffron outfit with regionalism at its core. For a party that claims to be the torchbearer of secularism, it won’t be an easy task to do business with and defend ideological moorings as everyone knows what agenda the Shiv Sena carries and what ideology it adheres to. In its quest of forming a non-BJP government in Maharashtra, the Congress might end up losing its ideological base which the party has established over the years.

The Congress must not forget authoritarian style of governance of the Shiv Sena, its despise for North Indians going to the extent of violence, contempt for constitutional values and highhandedness approach have time and again created chaos. So, it will be a tough call for Sonia Gandhi to take a decision.

(By Md Bilal)

maharashtra-mayhem:-is-the-bjp-hitting-three-birds-from-one-stone-

Maharashtra mayhem: Is the BJP hitting three birds from one stone?

By IndianMandarins 17 Nov 2019

The top leadership of the BJP – PM Narendra Modi and Home Minister Amit Shah – is full time politicians unlike the opposition that wakes up from the slumber when crisis crops up. What could be the next move of the opposition, the BJP leadership plans its answer well in advance and in one such scheme Shiv Sena -- the former ally of the BJP is trapped.

They might be able to install their CM in Maharashtra but the party might become a history in the politics of Maharashtra. The public perception in the state is suggesting so. It is known to everyone that public perception has been key to the success of the BJP from long. Right from the very moment when SS started demanding chief minister’s post not only social media was abuzz but started working in subtle way but in later phases they are openly accusing the Shiv Sena for harming the Hindutva ideology. Similarly the Congress will be harmed for aligning with the SS. If the SS and Congress are sorted out things would be easy for the BJP in the state. 

So much so that even Marathies are going against the Shiv Sena that has predominantly a Marathi identity and the community being their core vote bank. An activist working in Navi Mumbai Netra Daoo said that the Shiv Sena is harming the very ideology that was groomed by Bala Saheb Thackrey. Can they tell people of Maharashtra, how would they deal with contradictions of the ideology of Shiv Sena and the Congress.

The BJP leadership is cashing in on very well on the development which apparently seems to be in the spree of marganalising its allies so they follow their dictate. So the SS is stuck in the trap laid by the BJP. “If the Shiv Sena thinks it can revolt and get the people’s sympathy, they really don’t know the public,” said BJP Party President Amit Shah, who understands people’s pulse very well.

The BJP works on the slogan of its incumbent PM that turn adversity into opportunity and his lieutenant Shah is very well executing his plans. If the alliance government of the Congress, the NCP and Shiv Sena is formed, it will collapse out of its own contradictions. This is what the BJP wants as after that the maneuvering of the BJP not only of parties, leaders but people will start.

Daoo said that people especially their voters are so angry with them that the next election is going to very dear for them as they will find it impossible to justify their decision and all such people will fall for the BJP as mid-term election is not ruled out. Even the BJP would not shy away from it. But lot more development is yet to unfold

is-operation-lotus-a-ceaseless-political-exercise-for-bjp

Is Operation Lotus a ceaseless political exercise for BJP?

By IndianMandarins 13 Jul 2019

New Delhi: Apparently Operation Lotus seems to have become a continuous process across the country, it is not a need-based phenomenon like in Karnataka where not only the Congress but also Janata Dal (Secular) MLAs have resigned from their respective parties but also in Goa and many other undisclosed places. They will come to surface only once the task is accomplished.

 

The BJP is not only focusing on the area where it does not have any presence but also in areas where it further needs strengthening of the party. Sources informed that the BJP is working among OBC leadership in Tamil Nadu, the community which is sizable in number and some big leaders may join the BJP in the state. In Goa, the Congress is left with five MLAs which was the single largest party when elections had happened.

 

The BJP is very active in Telengana, Andhra Pradesh, Odisha and West Bengal but gradually it is reaching out to such leaders who are not given their due. Political analysts say that indecisiveness or laid back attitude of the Congress and many other political parties is also playing a big role in disenchantment of these leaders. The entire northeast has become NDA-ruled state with the same tactics of winning over people either in the BJP or in NDA.

 

So not much is left in the northern part of the country but Bihar and Jharkhand too is under the scanner of the BJP with lots of regional forces strongly present in many other states. Some coup might happen in these areas. The BJP leadership is of the view that it does not want to ride piggyback on any political party in Tamil Nadu and even in AP so they are trying to build something its own.

 

Though the party feels that despite the BJP failing to win any seat in Kerala, there is a ripple  for the party in the state as in West Bengal, Odisha and Telengana but in Andhra Pradesh and Tamil Nadu the BJP is still an outsider and not accepted. To be precise, these are the two states where Modi factor did not work rather they voted against Modi. So the party is working hard in these states. Infighting in Tamil Nadu BJP is another factor that is the roadblock in the expansion of the party in the state. But the party feels that nothing could be as difficult as West Bengal and if the party manages to win seats in Bengal, Andhra and Tamil Nadu too will come their way with little more efforts. So be ready for some more surprises where your imaginations would not have reached with BJP winning over some regional satraps.

(Vinod Kumar Shukla)

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Indianmandarins.com, an initiative of New Media Network, is a multi-media initiative for the fast and real-time dissemination of news and information related to civil services, central PSUs and other institutions that play a critical role in governance, administration, corporate governance, and public life in India. We aspire to provide our esteemed readers with news breaks and situation analysis in the above-mentioned domain of operations. Currently, we are available at www.indianmandarins.com. We are now planning to branch off into print publication and few other related business initiatives.