Suddenly Ram Madhav was called in and was appointed BJP election in-charge of J&K but what exactly prompted this decision? There are three-four arguments for the BJP appointing him as election in-charge of the UT. First, this is clear in the BJP organisation that no one can better understand and deal with politics of J&K than Madhav. He delivered by getting BJP the highest-ever 25 seats to BJP in 2014 Assembly elections and was instrumental in forging alliance with the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP); second he cultivated BJP sympathisers in the Valley where it was almost impossible for the BJP to have any; third the BJP has organisation all across J&K including the Valley but they are mostly Madhav men; and fourth RSS joint general secretary Arun Kumar is in-charge of the RSS to coordinate with the BJP and he served as pracharak in J&K for a very long time. So, his role in bringing Madhav to J&K is equally important and pragmatic.

Now, what the BJP expects from Madhav to do in J&K? There is a long-cherished dream of the BJP to have a Hindu CM in J&K. Will he be able to deliver? Opposition has started feeling tremor when mainstream regional political parties like PDP and National Conference (NC) started getting worried about independent candidates in the Valley on two counts; first they are damaging chances of these parties including the Congress in certain constituencies; and second some of these independent candidates may surprise candidates of these opposition political parties. This is the reason that they are accusing the BJP that they are supporting some independent candidates who might not get elected as BJP candidate but can win as independent which may help the BJP at the time of government formation if the party is somewhere close to it. The BJP would be needing Ram Madhav then also.

There were resentments in the J&K BJP over ticket distribution as some senior leaders were denied ticket in which Madhav too seems to have played a major strategic role to benefit the BJP. Angry leader filing nomination will claim anti-incumbency votes reducing the chances of other political parties winning seats if they are strategically denied these votes. The strategy of dividing anti-incumbency voters among as many blocks as possible is the new strategy of the BJP in J&K with Madhav at the helm.

A Delhi court granted Sheikh Abdul Rashid aka Engineer Rashid, interim relief to enable him to campaign in the Assembly elections in J&K who had defeated former CM and NC leader Omar Abdullah in the 2024 Lok Sabha polls as an independent candidate. His release is certainly not good news for PDP and NC who is jailed in terror funding case. Can PDP and NC be any better than his party if voters have to choose among Engineer Rashid’s outfit Awami Ittehad Party (AIP), NC and PDP that which is more radical. Engineer Rashid’s party is contesting Assembly elections.

Delimitation has added six seats to Jammu division and one seat to Kashmir. Seats in the Assembly rose to 114 seats, out of which 24 seats are designated for areas that fall under Pakistan-administered Kashmir. Out of the remaining 90 seats, 43 seats are in Jammu division and 47 seats are in the Kashmir division. The difference lies here as the seat gap between Jammu and Kashmir is reduced giving the BJP a better chance. Madhav is the only leader in the BJP who can capitalise on these situations. Elections are scheduled to be held for the 90-member legislative Assembly of union territory in three phases from September 18 to October 1. The results will be declared on October 8.

(By Vinod Kumar Shukla)