ASSEMBLY ELECTIONS

ex-dgp-s-twice-failed-tryst-with-politics-does-he-have-guts-to-do-it-again-

Ex-DGP's twice-failed tryst with politics: Does he have guts to do it again?

Usually, top cops are known for resolving intricate criminal conspiracy cases, for busting the nexus of corrupts, facing Naxal encounters, and neutralizing terrorist outfits. The Ex-DGP of Bihar was no exception. Yet it proved a tough task for him to understand the complexities and uncertainties of politics and neatly woven plots of politicians. 

People are wondering whether former Bihar DGP Gupteshwar Pandey's failed tryst with politics is a case of overconfidence, lack of political intelligence about his preferred Buxar seat going to the BJP quota instead of JD(U), or both.

Pandey's earlier attempt in 2015 at "tryst with politics" had also failed. At that time, since he had resigned, and the resignation was not accepted, so he joined back after withdrawing his resignation letter.

However, this time around, there is no going back.

Unlike in 2015, this time he faces a sort of embarrassment as the BJP has fielded from the Buxar constituency a retired constable who has been working with the party at the grassroots level for more than a decade. It is said that the candidature of Parshuram Chaturvedi, son of four-time Congress MLA Jagat Lal Chaturvedi, had the strong backing of Ashwini Chaubey, whom Pandey never cultivated.

It is not only Chaturvedi who has trumped Pandey. Another retired DG (home guards) Sunil Kumar, who had lost the DGP race to Pandey, has settled his old score by securing a JD(U) ticket from Bhore.

Pandey can still fulfill his political ambition - by nursing a constituency till the next opportune time. Does he have the guts to do it?

(By Rakesh Ranjan)

11 Oct 2020
maha-cm-job-at-stake-udhdhav-faces-constitutional-hurdle-with-limited-options

Maha CM job at stake: Udhdhav faces constitutional hurdle with limited options

There is a constitutional obligation before Uddhav Thackeray under Article 164 (4) that he would have to be a member of any of the houses of Maharashtra Assembly before May 24, 2020. Since the Election Commission of India has postponed every election, he is left with no other option but to look at the governor to be merciful on him to nominate him for Legislative Council.

What will happen if he fails to get nominated? There is one option that he resigns and takes oath as the CM once again giving himself another six months. But this is easier said than done as it would involve not only both the Shiv Sena's partners, the Congress and the NCP but give the governor more power to take a call on this.

There is a Supreme Court judgment pronounced on August 17, 2001, that had ruled such re-appointment of a minister in the Punjab government without getting elected to the Assembly as improper and undemocratic.

So what other option does he have if the governor refuses to oblige him? He can let his son Aditya Thackeray to take over but making his allies to agree on this is very difficult as they may seek some more concession that SS might not agree as it has already compromised a lot with its ideology.

There is no problem technically with any nominated member holding top posts as they are as good as any elected member. There is no bar on the governor nominating him as well.

However, till date, no CM has been nominated to the upper house under the nominated category. So much so that no one has been able to get a ministerial berth from the nomination category. His name has already been sent for nomination for the legislative council by the state cabinet. But the Maharashtra government is looking at every possible option to deal with the scenario. Thackrey had taken over reins of the state on November 28, 2019.

(By Rakesh Ranjan)

25 Apr 2020
ex-dgp-s-twice-failed-tryst-with-politics-does-he-have-guts-to-do-it-again-

Ex-DGP's twice-failed tryst with politics: Does he have guts to do it again?

By Rakesh Ranjan 11 Oct 2020

Usually, top cops are known for resolving intricate criminal conspiracy cases, for busting the nexus of corrupts, facing Naxal encounters, and neutralizing terrorist outfits. The Ex-DGP of Bihar was no exception. Yet it proved a tough task for him to understand the complexities and uncertainties of politics and neatly woven plots of politicians. 

People are wondering whether former Bihar DGP Gupteshwar Pandey's failed tryst with politics is a case of overconfidence, lack of political intelligence about his preferred Buxar seat going to the BJP quota instead of JD(U), or both.

Pandey's earlier attempt in 2015 at "tryst with politics" had also failed. At that time, since he had resigned, and the resignation was not accepted, so he joined back after withdrawing his resignation letter.

However, this time around, there is no going back.

Unlike in 2015, this time he faces a sort of embarrassment as the BJP has fielded from the Buxar constituency a retired constable who has been working with the party at the grassroots level for more than a decade. It is said that the candidature of Parshuram Chaturvedi, son of four-time Congress MLA Jagat Lal Chaturvedi, had the strong backing of Ashwini Chaubey, whom Pandey never cultivated.

It is not only Chaturvedi who has trumped Pandey. Another retired DG (home guards) Sunil Kumar, who had lost the DGP race to Pandey, has settled his old score by securing a JD(U) ticket from Bhore.

Pandey can still fulfill his political ambition - by nursing a constituency till the next opportune time. Does he have the guts to do it?

(By Rakesh Ranjan)

maha-cm-job-at-stake-udhdhav-faces-constitutional-hurdle-with-limited-options

Maha CM job at stake: Udhdhav faces constitutional hurdle with limited options

By IndianMandarins 25 Apr 2020

There is a constitutional obligation before Uddhav Thackeray under Article 164 (4) that he would have to be a member of any of the houses of Maharashtra Assembly before May 24, 2020. Since the Election Commission of India has postponed every election, he is left with no other option but to look at the governor to be merciful on him to nominate him for Legislative Council.

What will happen if he fails to get nominated? There is one option that he resigns and takes oath as the CM once again giving himself another six months. But this is easier said than done as it would involve not only both the Shiv Sena's partners, the Congress and the NCP but give the governor more power to take a call on this.

There is a Supreme Court judgment pronounced on August 17, 2001, that had ruled such re-appointment of a minister in the Punjab government without getting elected to the Assembly as improper and undemocratic.

So what other option does he have if the governor refuses to oblige him? He can let his son Aditya Thackeray to take over but making his allies to agree on this is very difficult as they may seek some more concession that SS might not agree as it has already compromised a lot with its ideology.

There is no problem technically with any nominated member holding top posts as they are as good as any elected member. There is no bar on the governor nominating him as well.

However, till date, no CM has been nominated to the upper house under the nominated category. So much so that no one has been able to get a ministerial berth from the nomination category. His name has already been sent for nomination for the legislative council by the state cabinet. But the Maharashtra government is looking at every possible option to deal with the scenario. Thackrey had taken over reins of the state on November 28, 2019.

(By Rakesh Ranjan)

coincidences-haunt-aap-&-congress-ahead-of-delhi-polls;-bjp-outmanoeuvres-again

Coincidences haunt AAP & Congress ahead of Delhi polls; BJP outmanoeuvres again

By IndianMandarins 07 Feb 2020

One may call it a mere coincidence that just a day before Delhi Assembly goes to polls certain issues have captured media optics that might dampen the hope of favourites in the hustings -- the AAP. The Congress might even get humiliated for second consecutive time in row bringing fortunes for the BJP in Delhi.

However, some other issues like PM’s speech in both the houses of Parliament and speech to celebrate pact with Bodo in Assam is an astute political plan by the party leadership.

Hearing on Shaheen Bagh in the Supreme Court is scheduled for February 7, 2020 and arrest of OSD to AAP Minister Manish Sisodia for accepting Rs 2 lakh as bribe are just a coincidence. But not other developments. Everyone knows that Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s speech on February 6, 2020 in Lok Sabha captured the media attention on the last day of election campaign. It seems that the PM addressed four rallies in Delhi two from Parliament.

Further, its not just a coincidence, rather an example of sharp poll management that PM Modi is scheduled to address a public meeting in Assam’s Kokrajhar district to celebrate peace deals with Bodo which will certainly earn big dividend in garnering NE voters in Delhi.

This is to recall how PM visited and spent time in a Kedarnath cave after 2019 Lok Sabha elections, so they know how to remain in the public eye irrespective of media houses liking or not liking it. However, a latest satta bazar survey gives BJP 41 seats in Delhi but this could be an strategy for them to earn more bucks with AAP actually having edge of saffron outfit.

(By Rakesh Ranjan)

shaheen-bagh:-an-ideology,-an-opportunity-or-a-trump-card-

Shaheen Bagh: An ideology, an opportunity or a trump card?

By IndianMandarins 04 Feb 2020

In the backdrop of Delhi Assembly elections, Shaheen Bagh has turned out to be an amazing mix of what is politics all about. The very politics has not only brought 'Shaheen Bagh demonstration' to the centre-stage of Delhi elections but also made it a synonym to the Delhi elections.

It has different meaning for different aspirational groups. For some its an opportunity to revive one’s politics, for some it’s a mean to retain power, for some a platform to display one’s democratic aspirations and for some its an ideology and a trump card.

How does it respond that would be out from the EVM on February 11, 2020 only. Delhi is waiting.

(By Rakesh Ranjan)

is-pk’s-professional-advise-to-aap-a-bigger-reason-for-fall-out-from-jd(u)-

Is PK’s professional advise to AAP a bigger reason for fall out from JD(U)?

By IndianMandarins 30 Jan 2020

You can’t sink the ship you too are sailing in, this is the crux of the story of departure of Prashant Kishor from JD(U). When a political strategist speaks his mind in public instead of giving indoor suggestion to the top leadership of the party he is a formal member then there is something wrong somewhere but departure could have been respectable. At least the way Prashant Kishor has fallen out of the JD(U) gives testimony to the fact that it was more than CAA that caused his exit.

Actually his professional interests have been in clash with the JD (U), so he was looking for some way out and JD (U) too was feeling the burden of having him in the party. When Prashant Kishor started looking after pool management of AAP, the first thing that he did was suggesting AAP to attack Manoj Tiwari by calling Pinkiya ke Papa making him a political pigmy.

Amid talks between the BJP and JD(U), these things have not gone down well with the alliance which has a bigger plan with poorvanchalies with this alliance in Delhi, Bihar and West Bengal. Pawan Verma spoke for Kishor questioning JD(U) alliance with the BJP in Delhi. Actually JD(U) joining hands with BJP in Delhi will disturb his strategy for West Bengal

Prashant Kishor committed mistake once against by putting on shoes much bigger than his size. So they constantly attacked the JDU’s decision on CAA but he actually wanted his professional outreach to grow. He is likely to join Trinamool Congress soon. But his advises on poorvanchalies to AAP infuriated not only the BJP but also JDU.  

from-advantage-aap-to-neck-and-neck-with-bjp-but-congress-may-surprise

From advantage AAP to neck and neck with BJP but Congress may surprise

By IndianMandarins 29 Jan 2020

The Congress is skirting the CAA issue in Delhi, AAP tells that it is in the support protesters and the BJP is vehemently opposed to protests especially at Shaheen Bagh. But what does it mean as Delhi Assembly elections are at very crucial stage?

A glance:

  1. The BJP very tactically shifted the entire narrative of bijli muft, paani muft (free water, free electricity) to CAA debate in Delhi.
  2. The party has also fanned AAP’s overconfidence by fielding weak candidates against Arvind Kejriwal and Manish Sisodia giving a message of conceding defeat while they are working hard in constituencies to cash in on anti-incumbency of AAP MLAs.
  3. Free DTC ride has disappointed auto driver as it is impacting their earning who were their hardcore supporters
  4. Certain section of the traditional voter of the Congress is now disenchanted with AAP is also coming back to the Congress.
  5. Despite the protest at Shaheen Bagh having some link with Amanatullah Khan of AAP Muslims are relying more on the Congress for their long-term benefits
  6. Reports are coming that Muslims voters will go full hog with the Congress the way they voted during Lok Sabha elections as their belief is constantly growing that only the Congress can take a decisive stand for them.
  7. Tentative approach of AAP is harming them as Many Congress leaders reached Shaheen Bagh but AAP leaders kept a distance from the protest
  8. AAP’s Muslim leaders are feeling cheated after some tickets were denied to Muslims
  9. AAP faced maximum protest in ticket distribution and except freebies AAP government does not have anything to offer to the people of Delhi.
  10. Strong Congress is a threat to AAP in the ongoing elections that the party failed to sense so far.
  11. The BJP is trying to increase just one to two percent beyond their fixed vote bank as they feel there is no wave as such for AAP

nadda-to-take-over-as-full-time-bjp-president-today

Nadda to take over as full time BJP President today

By IndianMandarins 20 Jan 2020

The BJP is going to get a new president on January 20, 2020 with the name of former Union Minister Jagat Prakash Nadda likely to announced to succeed Union home minister Amit Shah as the party chief. Nadda is the working president of the BJP at the moment. His term as BJP National President will be for three years.

Nadda has the daunting task of dealing with two crucial Assembly elections – Delhi that is underway and West Bengal being the most difficult one – besides taking the message of the party to people on CAA.

Nadda is known for his organisational acumen right from the time of ABVP. He was elected to Himachal Pradesh Assembly thrice and held the responsibility of cabinet minister under Prem Kumar Dhumal before moving to Delhi as party general secretary.

He was party general secretary under Rajnath Singh, Nitin Gadkari and also under Amit Shah before being elevated as working president. Nadda got his education in Patna, Bihar before shifted to Himachal Pradesh. 

jharkhand-assembly-elections:-a-tight-rope-walk-for-bjp's-central-leadership

Jharkhand Assembly Elections: A tight rope walk for BJP's central leadership

By IndianMandarins 12 Dec 2019

A survey suggests that the BJP is likely to win 45 to 48 seats in Jharkhand Assembly Elections but BJP insiders are not giving the party more than 20 seats if PM factor does not work. The previous tally of the party is 37 as against the critical number i.e. 41.  

Though K’taka came as a shy of relief for BJP but post Maharashtra it is being discussed whether Jharkhand Assembly elections would make a further dent into the image of BJP. After two phases of polls, the BJP is not counted much in the state. CM Raghubar Das himself is on weak turf with former party stalwart Saryu Rai challenging him in his den and the Congress has fielded a strong candidate.

Post Maharashtra crisis the Opposition now believes that it's not impossible to counter the BJP, if not at the Centre then definitely at states. That is why the Opposition is banking on anti-Raghubar Das wave despite the fact that PDS and other DBTs have improved remarkably under Raghubar administration. In a tactical move, Opposition is not attacking Modi as it might become counter-productive but attacking Raghubar might bear fruits.

As of now it appears that even if the BJP emerges single largest party in Jharkhand it may be difficult for Raghubar to win. Further, Any less number of seats for the BJP in Jharkhand will be a moral loss if Raghubar loses his seat.

In that case, it would be difficult for BJP central leadership to answer as it was Modi who had once cherry picked Raghubar as the CM. In 2014, Fadanvis, Khattar and Raghubar were hand-picked by Modi-Shah. Khattar somehow survived, Fadanvis faded away and Raghubar's personal stake appears to have eclipsed his larger political stakes.

Put together all pros and cons one should not forget that PM Modi’s popularity percentage was maximum (75 per cent) in Jharkhand ahead of 2019 LS Polls. One should not forget that Modi has himself launched a high decibel campaign to save party’s fate and face in the state.   

(By Rakesh Ranjan)

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