New Delhi (10.10.2024): Clueless Congress was numb with surprise when initial gains of the party reversed in favour of Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) which was written off by soothsayers, political pundits, psephologists and political stakeholders. The Congress believed them all that drove it into complacency and its leaders preferred to fight for chief ministerial berth. The BJP knew it very well that the task before them was arduous and continued with the plan assigned to them. The BJP leadership capitalised on the narrative that it is losing to win over its unhappy workers who wanted to give the BJP a lesson but were equally against the misrule and arrogance of the Congress leadership. The potential crises finally united its cadre. 

The Congress was working on a stale political theory that suggests anti-incumbency of 10 years are enough to overthrow any government without making any efforts ignoring BJP in Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh under Raman Singh, BJP under Modi at the Centre and now third consecutive term in Haryana. The BJP deliberately kept its campaign in low decibel allowing the Congress to dominate the narrative to win over its angry voters. The Congress ignored the fact that the BJP was ahead in 44 Assembly segment in June 4, 2024 Lok Sabha election results.

In Haryana, there was no anger as such against the BJP giving reasons to voters to punish it twice in the same year in hustings. Whatever little anger was, it had doused by changing Chief Minister of the state. The BJP uses this strategy quite frequently when it changed three chief ministers in Gujarat after Narendra Modi was moved to Delhi as the PM. So much so that in September 2021 the entire Gujarat government led by Vijay Rupani was changed. Devendra Fadnavis was asked to join the Maharashtra government as Deputy CM which suited their scheme of things. There is no fixed template for braving anti-incumbency and things are decided as they warrant.

When Bhupinder Singh Hooda forced Central leadership to concede 72 seats out of 90 to his disposal, they looked frail. It was still fresh in the minds of people how former Rajasthan CM Ashok Gehlot defied Centre’s instruction to take over as party president but he refused. Karnataka is held hostage by CM Siddaramaiah and former Chhattisgarh CM Bhupesh Baghel had always shown his allegiance towards Priyanka Gandhi than to the party. The Congress High Command failed to rein in leaders like Kumari Selja and Randeep Singh Surjewala who too were nurturing dream of becoming CM.

On the contrary, no one in the BJP knows who will be the CM of the state where BJP wins polls and no one is allowed to overgrow as well. The second most popular leader of the BJP and many term CM Shivraj Singh Chauhan was denied CM’s post in MP and so is the case with Vasundhara Raje who is known for her tantrums. She once forced former president of the BJP Rajnath Singh to compromise on many issues. The BJP has Mohan Yadav as MP CM, Vishnu Dev Sai as Chhattisgarh CM, Mohan Charan Majhi as Odisha CM, Bhajan Lal Sharma as Rajasthan CM and Most interestingly Sarvanand Sonowal was replaced by Himanta Viswa Sarma in Assam. There had been a smooth transition everywhere but it is wrong to say that those who were denied important assignment did not protest but that was not allowed to come to surface. Yogi Adityanath becoming CM had surprised many and despite rumours of him being removed, he shares good rapport not only with the PM but also with the RSS. The BJP doesn’t allow any regional Satrap to go so big that it can blackmail central leadership but the Congress have a lot. Anil Vij who was dreaming for the post of CM parroted the line that leadership will decide.

A section of media including social media came up with the argument that RSS was reluctant campaigner during 2024 Lok Sabha elections but in Haryana elections, the RSS was once again pro-active. RSS joint General Secretary Arun Kumar, who coordinates with the BJP officially, was active in Haryana since July but giving RSS any time frame for being active is a misplaced argument. The RSS worked with its strategy to reach out to every voter and bring them to booth on the day of polls as always. BJP General Secretary Organisation, Haryana poll in-charge Dharmendra Pradhan and co-incharge Biplab Dev were active in the state for more than a year when Manohar Lal was still the CM. The most important thing is that the saffron outfits deliberately allowed the Congress narrative that it is going to get a landslide victory in the elections that made Congress leader complacent. As per the strategy, the BJP leaders and voters were double cautious forcing people to come out to vote against the Congress as there was a section in Haryana that didn’t want a comeback of Hooda. The fear of Hooda coming back energise BJP workers to work even harder and a psychological game plan clicked for it.

Despite the Central leadership of the Congress almost clinching the deal with Aam Aadmi Party (AAP), the state leadership did not allow this to happen. A section of media reporting that AAP will get sympathy votes, the Congress was in double mind and AAP claimed over 1.6 per cent votes. Many claims that it could have changed the scenario in the state but many other have come up with data suggesting that AAP was nowhere in position to harm the BJP. But it certainly sent a message that I.N.D.I.A. block is not even united to defeat the BJP giving other more chance to bargain hard in the next elections.

After all these long years in politics, Rahul Gandhi seems to be a reluctant politician who does not enjoy it. He is not meant for it but family and the party want to cash in on his unique position of being Gandhi for their own benefits. Apparently, he is tutored to make such statements that either he does not understand or doesn’t mean what he is speaking. The coterie around forcing him to speak that does not suit Indian sensibilities. The dispassionate Rahul Gandhi gets embarrassed and disappears after every Haryana moment. His mother Sonia Gandhi is more passionate politicians but her health is not by her side. The way Rahul Gandhi conducts himself, he cannot deal with a well organised political party like the BJP that works 24X7. Rahul doesn’t understand or mean what he says is never repeated or similar lines are taken by Priyanka Gandhi clearly indicates that a particular syndicate works in the Congress that is completely unaware about politics and looks for every answer in academic deliberations.

On the issue of farmers (Kisan), Agniveer (Jawan), wrestlers (Pahalwan) and Dalits (SC), the Congress was with fringe elements damaging its prospects. When Rahul Gandhi met with farmers’ leaders in Parliament, a much ado was made about it but they are not a force to reckon with which was proved in the successive elections. Despite taking up these issues in the elections, the Congress failed to get support of people except Vinesh Phogat somehow winning her seat by 6015 votes. The biggest farmer leader Gurnam Singh Chadhuni who has been instrumental in blocking roads and borders got 1170 votes in the recent Assembly elections. But supporting agitation of Kisan, Jawan and Pahalwan and lies on SC reservation dented the image of the Congress.

Release of Dera Sachcha Sauda chief Baba Ram Rahim Singh to get voters of their supporters was played down by the Congress. The Congress was confused how to deal with release of Arvind Kejriwal who is on bail. The Congress wants to eat the cake and have it too.

The Congress trying to be too clever by half proved detrimental to it in Haryana Assembly elections. Moreover, Gandhies leaving the country on vacation to Dubai proves BJP’s point that Rahul Gandhi is a non-serious part time politicians and the BJP is too tough nut to crack for Rahul or the Congress.

(By Vinod Kumar Shukla)