Will it be Gautam Bambawale or Harshvardhan Shringla? Between the two, who will make it as ambassador to People"s Republic of China (PRC)? It is assumed that the selection may be done on the basis of the contender's ability to manage the contradictions in the relationship between the two most populous nations of the world whose nuclear missiles are targeting each other.
For the time being, it has been considered prudent to let Indian envoy to China Vijay Gokhale continue till October before he takes over as economic relations secretary at the foreign ministry headquarters in South Block. The continuing face-off between the two countries at the tri-junction between India, Bhutan, and Chinese-occupied Tibet is said to have weighed on the minds of the political leadership and persuaded it not to disturb the status quo in PRC posting.
It is speculated that If Bambawale gets the Beijing posting, the envoy to Poland, Ajay Bisaria, may be posted to Pakistan. It's not yet clear who may replace Bisaria in case he does get posted to Islamabad.
Bambawale is seen as an old China hand, but his Beijing stint could be less than a year since he is scheduled to retire in September 2018. The 1984-batch Indian Foreign Service officer was the first consul general of India in Guangzhou in 2007. Having worked in Islamabad as an ambassador coupled with his knowledge of PRC, he is well qualified for Beijing posting in view of his insight into the functioning of the minds of two sworn enemies of India.
Shringla has five more years of service and this might work to his advantage. At the same time, he's disadvantaged by the fact that he has no China experience. But he has vast experience of Southeast Asian Nations and his services could be well utilized as a special envoy to the region to neutralize PRC's geopolitical game and turn South China Sea into a vulnerable choke point for PRC.