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Jharkhand election results: Takeaways and Indian politics ahead

By IndianMandarins- 24 Dec 2019
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jharkhand-election-results:-takeaways-and-indian-politics-ahead

At the very outset of election campaigns in Jharkhand, it was assumed that BJP would not lose more than 6-7 seats and somehow would be able to manage to form the government through tactical alliances with AJSU and independents.

Political strategists Ahmed Patel, R P N Singh, Hemant Soren get all reasons to pat their back for getting over 45 seats for alliance.

Finally BJP’s dreams have shattered triggering several curious questions and takeaways from the results of Jharkhand elections as follows:-

  1. Jharkhand CM Raghubar Das lost his own seat which is a moral defeat as well. But at the same time it’s a big setback for BJP's central leadership.
  2. If Maharashtra elections bolstered the confidence of Congress strategists to make compromises for the sake of keeping BJP away from power then Jharkhand elections consolidated it.
  3. What makes more difficult to define the BJP’s defeat is that it lost its ground in a state like Jharkhand where PM Modi’s popularity graph ahead of 2019 Lok Sabha polls was highest at 75%. At the same time political analysts say that Modi's charisma would remain intact until the emergence of a leader to draw parallel. 
  4. BJP-RSS’ own Saryu Rai emerged as ‘the giant killer’ spoiling BJP’s prospects in the state. Party would have to reconsider its strategy to accommodate senior leaders of the party.
  5. Surprisingly Jharkhand elections took place in the backdrop of abrogation of Article 370, Ayodhya Verdict and CAA but the they failed to work for the BJP. CAA is being seen as people’s referendum in terms of political and electoral benefits.
  6. Further Jharkhand always had the privilege of having several official visits of PM Modi be it International Yoga Day or inaugural programs in Godda etc still it rejected the state leadership of BJP.
  7. Jharkhand results somewhere down the line indicate that law of diminishing effect has started catching up with the BJP.
  8. Probably it indicates that the process for revival of Congress and larger alliance has started which may continue. It also makes it obvious that Congress need to rework on missing-links of its functioning as it do not get micro-level feedback from the field else it could not have fielded Gaurav Ballabh, a bright young leader with bleak electoral prospects for now, against Saryu Rai in Jamshedpur seat
  9. AAP and Congress in Delhi have now got its confidence boosted with the BJP humiliated in Jharkhand and it's allies  may not take any chance to corner BJP in 2020 elections. Delhi elections may set a new course.
  10. Nitish, Naveen, Mamta, Jagan and others would start asserting and negotiating more and more with the Centre.
  11. Among Modi’s cherry-picked unknown faces in 2014 Fadanvis faded away, Khattar somehow survived and Raghubar finished finally; though he would lead the opposition in the state.
  12. Post Jharkhand elections the country may see pace in the shift of tone and tenor of television news channels and newspapers; an inevitable process which appears to have already started post Maharashtra elections. 
(By Rakesh Ranjan)

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