New Delhi (14.05.2025): Let US President Donald Trump brag about mediating ceasefire between India and Pakistan as he made similar such claims about ending war between Israel and Hamas and Russia and Ukraine and more interestingly he told media with former Pakistan Prime Minister Imran Khan Niazi by his side about his wish to mediate J&K but within a month’s time India abrogated Article 370 and 35 A, but apparently it is the neo imperialist China whose dirty tricks are causing all these troubles to rescue its sinking economy. The US too faces serious economic concerns causing upheaval around the world. Trump need not be taken seriously on this issue.

In hindsight, there is a need to understand certain chronologies that caused all these conflicts. The first is served first, G-20 Summit in India was held on September 9-10, 2023 where many issues of global interest were agreed upon. One such memorandum of understanding was on the India-Middle East -Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC), which was seen as a possible alternative to the China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), signed by the US, India, Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, France, Germany, Italy and the European Union. The planned corridor would link India, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Jordan, Israel and the EU, with the objective to boost trade and economic growth to benefit South Asia, India, Central Asia and Europe. Haifa port of Israel that Adani Group is developing is one of the key points of IMEC. China gave a miss to G-20 Summit in India.

Barely a month had passed and Hamas inflicted one of the deadliest terrorist attacks in the post holocaust history of Israel on October 7, 2023 killing around 1200 Israeli men, women and children and held hostage around 251 people. Israel has flattened Gaza in retaliation to this terrorist attack since then in an ongoing offensive. But what is interesting to note is that drones used by Hamas to target Israel were mostly cheap, ineffective and of Chinese origin. Come September, the G-20 resolution made in New Delhi would complete two years but IMEC remains a non-starter. CPEC too is a non-started with a huge stake of China because various Baluch organisations are not allowing the Pakistan Army to have control over the region facilitating China to carry on the unfinished work of CPEC. The Chinese tried their bid to broker peace with Baloches but it proved counterproductive, costing over 61 lives of Chinese engineers, technicians, security personnel and others.

The victory of Donal Trump and his taking over as the President of the US has shaken the world from the go with the announcement of a new tariff regime where global trade has been turned into a fish market with new negotiations. The habit of Trump cutting more than what he can chew made him the worst-ever US President. Bragging about prevailing over Arabian nations and Israel to end conflict in the Middle-east and also Russia-Ukraine got him a further image beating. The way Volodymyr Zelenskyy behaved with him in the Oval Office, White House that was humiliating for any US President by such a tiny nation that went on camera.

Trump announced tariffs on goods for China with some reaching a total of 145 per cent. These tariffs include a 125 per cent reciprocal tariff, a 20 per cent tariff related to illicit drugs, and pre-existing Section 301 tariffs, which range from 7.5 per cent to 100 per cent. The decision had led to retaliatory measures from China in similar veins but a compromise was reached upon for 90 days. Now, US tariffs on most Chinese imports will be cut to 30 per cent from the current 145 per cent, while China's tariffs will drop to 10 per cent from the current 125 per cent.

But the fear still looms large on many global MNCs as for them this new regime was not a profitable preposition. Prime Minister Narendra Modi managed to get some concessions for India from the US. The US imposed an additional import duty of 26 per cent on India. The tariffs were high on its competitors like Thailand, Vietnam and China. This suspension of tariffs is not applicable to China, including Hong Kong and Macau.  US tariffs, particularly the recent "reciprocal" tariffs, are indeed driving many MNCs to explore alternative manufacturing locations including India. The tariffs, which can be as high as 27 per cent on certain goods, make exporting from the US more expensive, leading companies to consider "nearshoring" or "relocating" production to countries with lower tariffs or more favourable trade conditions, such as India. Shifting production to countries with lower tariffs or more competitive manufacturing costs, such as India, China, or Vietnam. India's large and growing market, skilled workforce, and relatively low labour costs make it an alternative for some MNCs.

This is what China is unable to deal with and stomach for India being the fastest growing economy in the world and Chinese economy fast de-accelerating. Certain sectors like infrastructure are in shambles in China with the new tariff regime benefitting India was the most serious concern for the Dragon Nation. So, China decided to travel the path it is known for causing trouble for India and any bait including a few hundred thousand dollars or some facilities to Pakistan that has pathological hatred for India are enough to get the rogue nation ready for any misadventure. If instability, tension and uncertainty prevail why would any company invest in India? Moreover, China wanted to test many of its defence equipment that it supplied to Pakistan. But they proved to be dud or Indians were better equipped to counter them by exposing China globally.

The Indian government is criticised from all across domestically for agreeing to a ceasefire that was allegedly under pressure from the US compromising its sovereignty but hilariously two-three hours after the announcement of Trump brokering truce, drone attacks happened on India once again. The image of Trump in the melee has been the biggest global causality and Chinese weapons are exposed to the world. On Indian parts, no missile touched Indian soil, no drone breached its border, Rawalpindi hit, more than 100 terrorists neutralised, Masood Azhar’s entire family killed, JeM and LeT headquarters flattened, 11 airbases obliterated and radar stations destroyed. But reports about two nuclear sites literally shaken seem to have brought Pakistan to its knees. Confirmation is awaited that would never come.

Amid all these developments Prime Minister Narendra Modi announced in his address to the nation that Operation Sindhoor is not over, any terrorist attack from the cross border will be retaliated fiercely. Any further terrorist attack would be considered an act of war against India. This is the bottom-line for Pakistan to understand. How the domestic audience is satiated is certainly a million dollar question because that is simply not possible in a democratic country and oldest civilisation like India where the very phrase Caesar's wife must be above suspicion fits in true sense and spirit.   

(By Vinod Kumar Shukla)