The BJP appears to have turned the tide on the Congress in Haryana with unprecedented Assembly election win in a state known for predominantly Jat-centric politics with its astute poll strategy. Maharashtra was no less difficult as the BJP alliance in the state came down from 42 Lok Sabha seats in 2019 to 17 in 2024 Lok Sabha elections while number of seats of Congress-led went up to 30 Lok Sabha seats in 2024 from six in 2019 showing a clear edge to MVA in Assembly elections with a lead in 151 Assembly segments while Mahayuti in 128 segments. There was a clear edge for MVA with a unique distinction of the BJP being the single largest party by leading in 83 Assembly segments by winning nine Lok Sabha seats while the Congress leading in 63 Assembly segments but winning 13 Lok Sabha seats.

Consolidation of Maratha voters against Mahayuti which was demanding 10 per cent reservation for the community for long and protesting in the leadership of Manoj Jarange-Patil has done the trick for MVA in 2024 which was added by monolith Muslim voters deciding to go against the BJP and its alliance. Bigger chunk of Maratha voters supported MVA despite a Maratha being the Mahayuti CM and Maratha leader like Ashok Chavan, a former Congress CM, being brought to the BJP fold and the very next day nominated to the Rajya Sabha. Actually, the BJP fell short of ammos in the war of narrative in 2024 LS polls against I.N.D.I.A but now it seems to have corrected its mistakes by working among Marathas to tell them that only the BJP can help them even in getting reservation. Flip flops made by Manoj Jarange-Patil too is now going against the MVA who sought support from Syed Imtiaz Jaleel of AIMIM and Maulana Sajjad Nomani of ‘Bhagwa Love Trap’ fame, to forge Muslim-Maratha alliance on the lines of Muslim-Yadav pact on the lines of UP and Bihar and eulogising Chhatrapati Shivaji in the same breath. Apparently, his alleged mentor Sharad Pawar might have read writings on the wall that this may boomerang on MVA forcing Jarange to announce that Maratha may vote anyone they wish to.

The BJP had lost most of the tribal-dominated seats in 2024 including former Union Minister Arjun Munda getting defeated despite the fact that the BJP always have advantage in Lok Sabha elections. In Assembly elections, it goes to regional political parties so very ingeniously, the saffron outfit has changed the poll strategy. Himanta Biswa Sarma, a Samurai that had won second successive term for the BJP in Assam, has been put into service to deal with the situation that Assam is facing – Bangladeshi infiltration and change in demography. He completely changed the narrative in Jharkhand. Issues of change in demography, Bangladeshi infiltration and replacing Madarsa education with secular education appears to be working for the BJP in the state. Jharkhand that always had tribal vs outsiders debate that Sarma has single-handedly changed into tribals vs Bangladeshi infiltrators who are alleged to be encroaching tribal land in a planned manner. Bringing Champai Soren to the BJP fold with an elan on whom a few months ago Hemant Soren reposed complete faith to replace him as CM when he was arrested is something incredible feet for Sarma as a BJP leader.

Union Home Minister Amit Shah has proved yet again that he is the most skilful ringmaster at least in the present era of the Indian politics by not only managing to get 152 seats for the BJP out of 288 Assembly seats in Maharashtra but also that 16 BJP candidates are contesting as Shiv Sena (Eknath Shinde) or NCP (Ajit Pawar) candidates. The prominent names among them included former National Spokesperson of the BJP Shaina NC and Nilesh Rane. So, for all practical purposes, the BJP is contesting on 168 seats in Maharashtra. This is what is called a cleaver negotiation that Shah is known for. Many other things will be revealed after results are announced.

This is well known fact that Muslim voters have less appetite for the BJP but I.N.D.I.A hammering again and again that they have defeated the BJP in Ayodhya, Chitrakoot and some other places dear to Hindu sensibilities sent Hindus on fence on penance mode. They were feeling humiliated when these things were repeated and became part of public discourse. They started feeling guilty that 98 per cent Muslims voted against the BJP and Hindus were divided. Now they are reacting to it and Haryana being case in point. The statement made by Devendra Fadnavis that the BJP lost many seats due to ‘Vote Jihad’ is galvanising Hindus to join hands with Mahayuti. UP CM Yogi Adityanath’s rally is surcharging political atmosphere in the state and whatever was left was done by All India Ulma Board offering support to MVA on condition of its 17 demands being accepted that included ban on RSS and facilitating Ulama Board to preach Islam. Any silence on these issues may drive Hindu votes from MVA and the alliance must not forget that there are just around 12 per cent Muslims in Maharashtra unlike UP and Bihar where number goes beyond 16 per cent.

Knowing it very well that Marathas are predominantly agrarian community but with the passage of time, agriculture land holding is getting reduced. So, the community too is looking for jobs so the reservation. In the first such move to woo Marathas, the MVA government especially Dy CM Devendra Fadnavis approached such persons of the community who prepared report on economic condition of Marathas. To begin with the Maharashtra government launched a water conservation scheme named Jalyukt Shivar Abhiyan aiming to make 5000 villages free of water scarcity every year. The flagship programme launched by the then Chief Minister Devendra Fadnavis, Jalyukta Shivar Abhiyan aimed to bring water empowerment to 25,000 drought-affected villages in next five years. The scheme did well with villages building infrastructure and making the programme one of the largest Government initiatives in terms of public participation. In the first phase, there was a plan to build storage capacity of 27 lakh TMC water while in the second the target was 5.5 lakh TMC. This scheme is benefitting Marathas majorly. Some other such schemes too are benefiting Marathas.

Ignoring Kumari Selja and Randeep Surjewala cost dear to the Congress in Haryana and similar mistakes seem to be repeating in Maharashtra. Reportedly Rahul Gandhi walked out of the meeting over the decision of Maharashtra Congress leadership for conceding winnable seats to Shiv Sena (UBT) and NCP (SP) as reports reached him that the Congress was soft with its allies while negotiating seats despite having upper hands as it had won maximum Lok Sabha seats in 2024 in Maharashtra. Both SSUBT and the Congress have declared candidates from Kolhapur South constituency. Sachin Sawant expressed displeasure over being fielded from the Andheri West constituency and has demanded to be fielded Bandra East, a seat where he has “worked extensively.” There are over half a dozen candidates of the Samajwadi Party in Muslim dominated which is going to harm MVA. MNS too will be harming SSUBT. There are many rebels of Mahayuti too but they are lesser potent to harm the alliance. A new kind of board game is being played out in Maharashtra and Jharkhand and the MVA is working on the same clichéd strategy with exception of Sharad who is playing his own game.