Victory bequeaths its own aura on victors. And the aura blinds them to the reality that defeat is lurking right there in the corner. It happened to Narendra Modi and Amit Shah; and it would happen to Rahul Gandhi and his cohort of buccaneers.

 

Four years ago, while great electoral scholars were still blinded by the stunning victory of Narendra Modi in the 2014 national election, Indianmandarins was the first to warn the PM against the fatal risk of straying from two fundamental tenets of feasible Hindutva - of protecting farmers' interests at all cost and selective culling of cattle. Our concern was then triggered by an acute Ministry-made shortage of urea right at the time of Rabi sowing. It was also born out of the fear of the terrible consequences for agriculture arising out of not slaughtering unwanted cattle and letting them stray in villages.

 

No one listened, because victory is not only blinding, it tends to make one deaf and insensitive. And the cost for it is always penal. At one shot, the BJP has lost Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, and C'garh. And it may well lose the national elections as well if it doesn't mend its ways and set its mind free.

 

Since knowledge has never been cheap, Indianmandarins refrains from unsolicitedly advising the BJP what it should and could do to win the hearts of farmers and landless peasants in the short run to 2019 national election.

 

For Rahul and his gang of public school boys and girls, the victory in three northern states is manna from heaven. Since even God's mercy is not unlimited, they have to be careful, more because they have won without presenting people with an alternative narrative or vision. Further, the margin of victory is so narrow in terms of overall vote percentages that the Congress in the three states would find itself on a cleft stick running the administration. Besides, the internal fault lines in the party may pose additional problems.

 

The victory of Congress in three northern states is offset by its humiliating defeat in Mizoram. The party is now out of power in the entire Northeastern states. In electoral terms, this loss may not be significant, but it reinforces signals of its retreat as a national all-India party. The defeat in Telangana also casts a shadow on its effort to emerge as an acceptable opposition to the BJP.

 

So, for Rahul, the road to power still leads only to Tuglaq Road despite some sunshine this winter.

(By M K Shukla)