With each upcoming phase of 2019 polls, the electoral duel is turning
more intense and vicious and prediction becoming increasingly complex. Of
course, it has been difficult and dicey to land a conclusion from day one
especially because various pre-poll surveys have been hugely different from one
another. One survey predicts 336 seats for the NDA whereas others indicate far
less from the magic number of 272. Whatever be the final tally on 23 May, there
are certain things which look almost certain. The first and foremost thing is that, unlike the 2014 LS polls, 2019
appears full of uncertainties. Contrary to 2014, this time the ‘Wave’ is
completely missing. In 2014, there was a double wave - wave against Congress
and an unprecedented wave in favor of Modi. In the given situation, it is likely that none may get a clear majority
to form the Govt. Secondly, whosoever forms the government it will face strong
opposition in Parliament. Consequently, the next govt will have to do a
tight-rope walk. The 2014 elections were fought on the agenda of Development which
appears to have shifted towards Hindutva and Nationalism. The election campaigns, in 2014, were riding on the wave of ‘an
alternative politics’ but in 2019 there appears no firm alternative against the
outgoing government. In 2014, the people gave a clear mandate but the 2019 elections may not
bring a clear majority to any party or coalition. What looks certain, though, is that the 17th Lok Sabha, in any case,
will have a weak government and a strong opposition. In 2014, BJP had a battery of leaders, orators and star campaigners
(Advani, MM Joshi, Sushma Swaraj, Gadkari, Rajnath, Shatrughan Sinha, Sumitra
Mahajan), but in 2019, only Modi and Amit Shah are in the driving seat. The big
team of 2014 appears to have shrunk too much in 2019. In 2014, Prashant Kishore was the poster boy but in 2019 Kanhaiya Kumar
appears to have captured the optics as the poster-boy. Amid disenchantments with the Modi Govt, Nitish Kumar would have been
the biggest beneficiary of ‘So-called Mahagathbandhan’ but he appears to have
lost the opportunity now.
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Battle 2019: Uncertainty is the only certainty
By IndianMandarins - 2019-04-19 13:34:36
With each upcoming phase of 2019 polls, the electoral duel is turning
more intense and vicious and prediction becoming increasingly complex. Of
course, it has been difficult and dicey to land a conclusion from day one
especially because various pre-poll surveys have been hugely different from one
another. One survey predicts 336 seats for the NDA whereas others indicate far
less from the magic number of 272. Whatever be the final tally on 23 May, there
are certain things which look almost certain.
The first and foremost thing is that, unlike the 2014 LS polls, 2019 appears full of uncertainties. Contrary to 2014, this time the ‘Wave’ is completely missing. In 2014, there was a double wave - wave against Congress and an unprecedented wave in favor of Modi.
In the given situation, it is likely that none may get a clear majority to form the Govt. Secondly, whosoever forms the government it will face strong opposition in Parliament. Consequently, the next govt will have to do a tight-rope walk.
The 2014 elections were fought on the agenda of Development which appears to have shifted towards Hindutva and Nationalism.
The election campaigns, in 2014, were riding on the wave of ‘an alternative politics’ but in 2019 there appears no firm alternative against the outgoing government.
In 2014, the people gave a clear mandate but the 2019 elections may not bring a clear majority to any party or coalition.
What looks certain, though, is that the 17th Lok Sabha, in any case, will have a weak government and a strong opposition.
In 2014, BJP had a battery of leaders, orators and star campaigners (Advani, MM Joshi, Sushma Swaraj, Gadkari, Rajnath, Shatrughan Sinha, Sumitra Mahajan), but in 2019, only Modi and Amit Shah are in the driving seat. The big team of 2014 appears to have shrunk too much in 2019.
In 2014, Prashant Kishore was the poster boy but in 2019 Kanhaiya Kumar appears to have captured the optics as the poster-boy.
Amid disenchantments with the Modi Govt, Nitish Kumar would have been the biggest beneficiary of ‘So-called Mahagathbandhan’ but he appears to have lost the opportunity now.
