To many in the national capital, the outcome in Rajasthan may not be all that intriguing. After all it has behaved as a Pendulum politics state - with fortunes swinging either way every five years. So, a Cong win never required a psephologist to predict.

 

Well, that might not be wrong as Indian Mandarin goes about gauging the Political barometer across the state - but the story might have a twist in the tale this time.

 

Congress leads no doubt but the margin of the lead that was predicted at the start of the electioneering may not be the same as the state prepares to poll. BJP though still lagging has covered a lot of ground and has substantially bridged the gap. Factors which have helped BJP may not be of its own making as scrutiny may reveal the Congress may have contributed to the BJP catching up. First was the ticket distribution which was faulty, observers say at least on 15-20 seats. Second the emergence of 'local third force' may be doing a lot more harm than the adversary BJP. Hanuman Beniwal the Independent MLA from Khiwsar formed his party and has majorly captured the Jat Voters thereby denting the Cong prospects in the Jat dominated regions of Nagore & Sikar. Plus no one knows who gets harmed by the rebellion of senior BJP leader Ghanshyam Tewari. BSP is already there with its share of pain for the Cong.

 

But the most important factor that somewhat weakened the chances of the Cong might be the leadership confusion. Between Sachin Pilot camp and the Gehlot camp, the tug of war was evident enough for the supporters to get confused. The quest for creating new leadership should have been controlled as Ashok Gehlot's presence is perceptibly strong on the ground across the state.

 

But despite all this the road for BJP isn't smooth. The natural inclination of the voters to change the Govt every five years is very strong. Coupled with this is the perception among voters that the Modi-Shah duo does not like Vasundhara that much. The slogan that – ‘Modi tujhse Bair nahin / Vasundhara teri Khair nahin’ might have a deeper meaning in the BJP pockets. The ‘Notebandi’ and GST turmoil still looms large even among the traditional supporters.

 

All said Cong may have a clear shot still - but definitely with a very reduced lead OR perhaps with a little help from the third force.

(By Nitu Tewari, New Media Network)