With polling for West Bengal's five out of six phases complete, and the fate of 269 of 294 assembly seats sealed, Mamta Banerjee's fate is being widely speculated about. TMC's reign of terror, corruption issues including the Narada scam, division in Muslim votes (28 per cent) are being cited as change agents.
Muslims votes account for more than 20 per cent of the electorate in 125 constituencies, and remained with Banerjee in all previous elections, but this time it is said to have been split. The state has witnessed a minor decline in polling percentage from 82 per cent in the 2014 Lok Sabha elections to 80 per cent so far this year.
It's also said that the tough stance of the Election Commission in ensuring security has curbed bogus voting and people were allowed to exercise franchise without fear.
Biswanath Chakraborty, a professor of Rabindra Bharati University and eminent psephologist, thinks that Trinamool will return to power with 155-170 seats, down from 184. "The Left-Congress alliance will win 115 to 130 seats, up from 107 (Left 65, Congress 42). They will make a dent in Trinamool's dominance in North 24 Parganas. But Trinamool will dominate in South Bengal constituencies," he says.
"BJP may get four seats. They will retain the sole constituency at Basirhat South and may add Kalchini and Madarihat in North Bengal and Jorasanko in Kolkata where an under construction flyover collapsed. BJP's ally GJM should win three hill constituencies." Though he points out at some division in Muslim votes, Chakraborty thinks the Trinamool is still a favourite among the community's members. "There is no common trend in this election. Narada scam has little impact on rural Bengal. Local issues and organisational strengths will be deciding factor," he says.
Speculations rife over Mamta's fate
By IndianMandarins - 2016-05-02 11:06:02
With polling for West Bengal's five out of six phases complete, and the fate of 269 of 294 assembly seats sealed, Mamta Banerjee's fate is being widely speculated about. TMC's reign of terror, corruption issues including the Narada scam, division in Muslim votes (28 per cent) are being cited as change agents.
Muslims votes account for more than 20 per cent of the electorate in 125 constituencies, and remained with Banerjee in all previous elections, but this time it is said to have been split. The state has witnessed a minor decline in polling percentage from 82 per cent in the 2014 Lok Sabha elections to 80 per cent so far this year.
It's also said that the tough stance of the Election Commission in ensuring security has curbed bogus voting and people were allowed to exercise franchise without fear.
Biswanath Chakraborty, a professor of Rabindra Bharati University and eminent psephologist, thinks that Trinamool will return to power with 155-170 seats, down from 184. "The Left-Congress alliance will win 115 to 130 seats, up from 107 (Left 65, Congress 42). They will make a dent in Trinamool's dominance in North 24 Parganas. But Trinamool will dominate in South Bengal constituencies," he says.
"BJP may get four seats. They will retain the sole constituency at Basirhat South and may add Kalchini and Madarihat in North Bengal and Jorasanko in Kolkata where an under construction flyover collapsed. BJP's ally GJM should win three hill constituencies." Though he points out at some division in Muslim votes, Chakraborty thinks the Trinamool is still a favourite among the community's members. "There is no common trend in this election. Narada scam has little impact on rural Bengal. Local issues and organisational strengths will be deciding factor," he says.
