The high-stake elections are taking place in the immediate wake of the Special Intensive Revision (SIR) exercise, which saw a staggering deletion of nearly 69 lakh voters from the state's Voter List. Against this backdrop of a pruned electorate, here is a close look at the factors that are poised to decide the political fate of Bihar.

The incumbent Chief Minister, Nitish Kumar, an undisputed OBC face, has for years served as the sheet anchor for the NDA in Bihar, successfully navigating the alliance through multiple electoral cycles. However, the whispers around his deteriorating health condition are no longer confined to the backrooms. His recent instances of perceived incongruous behaviour have become a matter of deep concern and palpable anxiety within the NDA, particularly among leaders of his own Janata Dal (United). While the BJP may quietly eye this as an opportunity to potentially usher in a post-poll change of guard, the CM’s current state could prove to be an unexpected political liability for the entire NDA consortium.

The aggressive roadshow by poll strategist-turned-politician Prashant Kishor (PK) over the last few months is now translating into an electoral threat. His outfit, Jan Suraj Party, has announced its intention to field candidates in all 243 constituencies, a move that is likely to impact the NDA disproportionately, given Kishor's own upper caste identity and outreach. The I.N.D.I.A. bloc, however, is not immune to his challenge. PK could emerge as a significant spoiler in the Muslim-dominated seats, where the All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen (AIMIM) is also an aggressive player. AIMIM, which plans to contest nearly 100 seats, had already demonstrated its potency in the last elections by winning five of the 20 seats it contested.

The Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) has adopted an uncharacteristically aggressive pitch, focusing on a strong consolidation of its traditional OBC and Muslim vote base. The party’s electoral messaging is sharp: a robust counter-narrative to the 'Jungle Raj' allegations, coupled with the popular promise of providing one government job per household. This is further backed by the promise to breach the 50 per cent reservation cap and introduce quotas in the private sector. While the RJD faces internal dissent—from family members like Tej Pratap Yadav, Rohini Acharya, and Misa Bharati—and external friction with some partners, the party leadership is projecting a strong sense of confidence, suggesting an ability to iron out differences or, if necessary, even fight the poll solo.

The visible turnout for the Voter Adhikar Yatra seems to have infused a new sense of ambition into the Congress rank and file. The party is now reportedly demanding upwards of 70 seats to contest and is strategically non-committal on declaring RJD’s Tejashwi Yadav as the Chief Ministerial face of the I.N.D.I.A. alliance. This maximalist approach, however, has led to friction, with the RJD holding firm on seat allocation. Even the CPI (ML), which boasts a better strike rate than the Congress in the last elections, has expressed reservations about ceding more ground to the national party. The Congress, often accused of biting off more than it can chew in coalition arrangements, must temper its aspirations with political prudence. The party’s ambiguity on Tejashwi, coupled with VIP leader Mukesh Sahani’s parallel demand for the Deputy CM post, presents a potentially destabilising internal challenge for the I.N.D.I.A. formation.